With just four months left until the 2024 presidential election, most national polls show Donald Trump slightly ahead of President Joe Biden.
Since Biden’s disastrous performance in the June 27 presidential debate, Trump has been pulling ahead slightly in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregator.
The pair have generally been polling neck-and-neck, with typically around a percentage point’s difference between them, or less. As of July 1, Trump’s average lead is 1.4 percentage points, per the aggregator.
Only one poll since the debate has shown Biden ahead of Trump. But another poll by the same pollster a few days later with a larger sample size showed Trump in the lead.
President Joe Biden, right, and former President Donald Trump participate in the CNN Presidential Debate at the CNN Studios in Atlanta on June 27, 2024. Recent polls show Trump pulling ahead of Biden after the debate.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
The Morning Consult poll surveyed 10,679 registered voters between June 28 and 30, and found Trump polling ahead of Biden, 44 percent to 43 percent.
Trump’s improvement was marginal, compared with the lead-up to the debate, when they were tied. This suggests that “Biden’s alarming debate performance might not have surprised voters as much as it surprised Democrats in Washington,” Morning Consult said.
A poll conducted by Patriot Polling between June 27 and 29, surveying 1,029 registered voters, showed that Trump was leading Biden 44.3 percent to 40.5 percent.
The pollster noted that Trump has doubled his lead since the last Patriot Poll of the race, which was conducted in February.
“President Biden’s poor debate performance is likely a factor in Trump’s expanding lead, with over 76% of respondents rating Trump as the winner of Thursday’s debate,” Patriot Polling said.
On June 28, pollster Data for Progress asked 1,011 registered voters to choose between Biden and Trump, as well matching up Trump against various Democratic candidates whose names are being floated to replace Biden on the ticket.
Trump beat every Democrat candidate he was matched up against by either two or three points. He polled ahead of Biden 48 percent to 45 percent.
An AtlasIntel poll taken between June 26 and 28, which surveyed 1,634 likely voters, found Trump was ahead of Biden 45.5 percent to 40.3 percent.
AtlasIntel was named the most accurate polling group of the 2020 presidential election by 538.
Newsweek contacted the Biden and Trump campaigns for comment via email outside of regular working hours.
Many Democrats were alarmed following the debate, sparking fevered calls to replace him on the ticket, which would be unprecedented in modern times.
But Biden has expressed determination to carry on and fight. Seth Schuster, a Biden campaign spokesman, previously told Newsweek: “Joe Biden is not dropping out.”
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
