Hugh Grant, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, and all the bubble Oscar contenders we’re rooting for

Gold Derby has been handicapping the 2025 Oscars since July, and each of the 23 categories has cycled through several frontrunners in the intervening months. However, some of our favorite movies, performers, and artisans are currently on the outside looking in, according to the most recent odds. Here are all of the on-the-bubble Oscar contenders we’re rooting for when the nominations are announced on Thursday morning. Agree or disagree with our passion picks? Be sure to sound off down in the comments section or in our movie forums.

September 5 in Best Picture

The best magicians make it look easy, and that’s the indelible strength of September 5. Yes, it’s deceptively simple: a historical narrative played out over the course of 90 minutes on essentially just one set. Yet that’s exactly what makes the film so noteworthy. Without overblown flourishes or bombastic performances, director Tim Fehlbaum seamlessly blends archival historical footage into painstaking, powerful storytelling, raising 50-year-old ethical questions we have yet to answer. Despite its strong critical response, September 5 has been shut out of most precursor awards, though the PGA nomination for Best Picture offers a glimmer of hope. One can only hope it isn’t as false as the rumors that the hostages survived. — Debra Birnbaum

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Hugh Grant (Heretic) in Best Actor

As the Monopoly-obsessed Mr. Reed, Hugh Grant has been nominated at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA Awards. Audiences can’t stop talking about the character’s creepy lectures and obsession for blueberry pie-scented candles. Yet the English actor, who has never being nominated at the Oscars during his stellar career, is way down in 10th place in our Best Actor Oscar predictions. What gives? The Academy has always had a blind spot for horror performances, with only few breaking through in this specific category (we’re looking at you, Anthony Hopkins for The Silence of the Lambs).  The top four slots in Best Actor seem quite secure for Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), and Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), so here’s hoping Grant passes “Go” and collects $200 as the fifth nominee. — Marcus James Dixon

Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) in Best Actress

Marianne Jean-Baptiste‘s performance as Pansy, a misanthropic woman who lashes out at everyone around her, turns utter misery into deep sympathy. At first we’re inclined to laugh at Pansy’s relentless barrage of complaints — she’s like an insult comic run amok. Then we feel sorry for her loved ones, who must endure this whirlwind at all times. Finally we see her tired, depressed, lonely core. No one suffers her negativity nearly as much as she does. A less compassionate performer might have exhausted the audience and left us longing just to be away from Pansy for good. But Jean-Baptiste shows us her humanity. So far this performance has dazzled movie journalists; she swept the New York, Los Angeles, and National Society critics’ kudos. She also earned BAFTA and Critics Choice noms. But she was overlooked by the Golden Globes and SAG Awards, leaving her on the bubble fighting for one of the five Oscar slots. The Best Actress race would feel incomplete without her. — Daniel Montgomery

Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) in Best Actor

The most deceptively difficult acting job of 2024 belonged to Jesse Eisenberg. Why? Because he had to hold his own without getting blown off the screen by costar (and Best Supporting Actor frontrunner) Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain. To perhaps Eisenberg’s own detriment, he’s been pushing Culkin’s bona fides on the promo circuit more than his own. But don’t let that fool you. The movie was a two-hander, and if there’s no David (Eisenberg), there’s no Benji (Culkin). While Eisenberg earned a Golden Globe bid for his acting, it’s for screenplay that he stands the far better shot. The script has already landed him Globe, BAFTA, and Indie Spirit attention. For actor, Gold Derby has him in seventh place with deceptively poor odds of 100/1. The most apt comparison here is Tom Cruise’s massively underappreciated work opposite Dustin Hoffman in Rain Man that landed Hoffman an Oscar win and Cruise bupkis. Eisenberg had to hold it together while the remarkable Culkin stole every scene. No modest feat, that. It’s more than deserving of Academy Award attention. — Ray Richmond

SEE 2025 Oscars calendar update

Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) in Best Supporting Actor

The Oscar race for Sing Sing’s Clarence Maclin has been turbulent. Just four months ago, the breakout star was the frontrunner to win Best Supporting Actor. However, following snubs at both the Golden Globes and SAG Awards, Maclin has fallen out of the top five and is considered a long shot to even be nominated. In Sing Sing, the formerly incarcerated actor known as “Divine Eye” plays a version of himself, a Rehabilitation Through the Arts participant who is transformed by the power of storytelling. His powerful journey was one of the most inspiring of the year — and his BAFTA and Critics Choice Award nominations have kept him in the race. For giving one of the most heartfelt and uplifting performances of the year, Maclin is a bubble contender we’re rooting for. — Denton Davidson

Jon M. Chu (Wicked) in Best Director

It should be — and could be — possible for the director of a blockbuster to be nominated at the Oscars. In the past few decades, it has become much more fashionable to nominate just the directors of arthouse and smaller-budget films. However, Jon M. Chu‘s achievement with Wicked was remarkable for its vision, clarity, and style, plus he had to meet and exceed the expectations of the many fans of the stage musical. The filmmaker has been overlooked almost all of this awards season, but hopefully the directing branch members will recognize the gravity of Chu’s accomplishment. — Chris Beachum

Marco Costa (Challengers) in Best Editing

Love means nothing in tennis, but it would be a shame if Challengers’ editing gets no love from the Academy. Edited by Marco Costa, Challengers, which is in sixth place in the odds behind a quintet of probable Best Picture nominees, arguably features the most dynamic and inventive editing of any 2024 film. The quick cuts, sharp angles, interminable slo-mo, and constant toggling between its symbiotic love triangle are a masterstroke of tension and suspense. Besides, any film with the audacity to feature the POV of a tennis ball deserves all the awards. — Joyce Eng

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