WASHINGTON – If Donald Trump is reelected to a second term in the White House, he would return to Washington with very different relationships than when he left the nation’s capital in January 2021.
At the end of his first term, his standing among GOP lawmakers was precarious: The Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol building led to condemnations from both sides of the aisle and his historic second impeachment. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., delivered a scathing floor speech after Trump’s Senate trial saying the lame duck president was “practically and morally responsible” for the riot, and even allies like Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said “count me out” on Trump. Observers speculated it would be the end of his political career.
Nearly four years later, Trump has defied those odds in a remarkable comeback. His political career has not only survived, he is virtually tied with Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in polling averages. He has consolidated his power in the GOP, replacing Republican National Committee leaders with allies (and family) loyal to him. He has remained a kingmaker in Republican primary elections, giving lawmakers a powerful incentive to stay on his good side if they want to win elected office.
And he has strengthened his influence in Congress, shaping policy as a private citizen from his members-only Mar-a-Lago club and personal residence. Just this year, he helped kill a bipartisan negotiated border security bill and gave GOP lawmakers cover to support $95 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan – a dynamic that hasn’t always pleased congressional Republicans.
“Just like he did in his first term, President Trump will work with anyone who wants to help deliver on his promises made to the American people,” Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to USA TODAY.
The Senate is expected to flip to Republicans next year as they have no seats to defend in battleground or blue-leaning states, while House Republicans are fighting to retain control of the lower chamber. If Republicans win the House, Senate and White House, Trump’s renewed strength and relationships with congressional Republicans could mean policy wins for the party over the next two years, though they would still have to clear the 60-vote filibuster threshold in the Senate.
If Democrats retain control over either chamber of Congress, they will work to derail those efforts, and GOP leaders will be forced to work with their Democratic counterparts to get anything substantive done during a second Trump administration. If Democrats somehow retain control of the Senate, they would likely slow down confirmation of Trump’s judicial nominees and Cabinet picks.
Some lawmakers are closer than others to the former president, who values loyalty above all else. These people are likely to be advocates and liaisons for Trump if he is reelected.
Trump’s House allies
In the House, several of Trump’s allies hail from Florida, the state he has called his official home since 2019.
Second-term Florida Rep. Byron Donalds was on Trump’s vice presidential shortlist. He has been a top surrogate this election cycle, and he spoke at the former president’s Madison Square Garden rally last Sunday. Florida Reps. Matt Gaetz – the firebrand congressman who helped topple former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy last October – and Mike Waltz represented Trump in the post-presidential debate spin room. And Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., appeared at Trump rallies and in Manhattan to support him during his hush money criminal trial.
Some of Trump’s other closest relationships go back years. Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has been one of Trump’s staunchest allies in the House since assuming office in 2021 and has acted as an intermediary for him in key moments, such as during the rebellion against McCarthy. Democrats booted Greene from committees when they controlled the chamber in 2021 and 2022, though GOP leadership once it took over in 2023 reinstated her positions.
Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, is another longtime ally who helped start the right-wing House Freedom Caucus that has repeatedly broken with their fellow Republicans and who now serves as chair of the House Judiciary Committee, where he oversees investigations into the Biden administration. Trump endorsed Jordan to succeed McCarthy as speaker. Another Ohio member, former Trump administration official Rep. Max Miller, is also in frequent contact with the former president.
Rep. Ronny Jackson, R-Texas, became close with Trump as his chief doctor in the White House. Jackson flew to New Jersey to check on Trump after an assassination attempt in July, released a report of the injury to his ear and traveled with the former president as he recovered.
Unlike his still-frosty relationship with McConnell, Trump is friendly with House leadership.
Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., made a name for herself defending Trump to the media during his first Senate impeachment trial in 2019 and also endeared herself enough to the former president to be under consideration as a potential vice presidential pick earlier this year.
And Trump has spoken glowingly about House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., despite repeatedly disagreeing over how to approach looming government shutdowns over the last year.
In 2020, Johnson spearheaded a brief supporting Trump in a lawsuit seeking to overturn President Joe Biden’s win. Johnson now touts his regular conversations with Trump, who defended him against a leadership challenge from Greene. Johnson will also have to defend his post during a leadership election set to take place Nov. 13 and may face challengers, especially if the House flips to Democratic control.
“I have a very close working relationship with President Trump and consider him now a close friend. I know that’s mutual, and he tells me how much confidence he has in my leadership,” Johnson said in a recent interview with Axios – adding that he expects Trump will be “fully supportive” in his bid to remain the House GOP leader.
Trump’s Senate allies
The Senate has typically been stacked with fewer Trump die-hards than the House, but the former president still has several close allies in the upper chamber who would be key to helping him enact his agenda if he wins a second term. The Senate also would have the sole responsibility of confirming Trump’s potential Cabinet picks and judicial nominees, including to fill any Supreme Court openings.
Three out of four of Trump’s finalists for his vice presidential pick served in the Senate, and two would still be there next year if he wins – unless they’re scooped up to serve in Cabinet positions.
Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., underwent a years-long transition from Trump skeptic (and 2016 presidential primary opponent) to MAGA acolyte. Rubio is well-versed in foreign policy and is considered someone who Trump listens to on the issue. He has also joined Trump on the campaign trail, most recently appearing at the Republican nominee’s rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Tuesday.
Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., started this election cycle as a primary opponent to Trump, but abruptly dropped out of the race in November, two months before the Iowa Caucuses, and endorsed Trump a few months later. The pair connected during the former president’s first term shaping policy in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Trump’s closest allies in the Senate have been defenders of his brand of conservative populism. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., was an early Trump ally who gained a reputation during his first term as a “Trump whisperer” who advised the former president on foreign policy and immigration.
He is also close with Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Montana Sen. Steve Daines, who is leading Senate Republicans’ campaign resources this election cycle. And he has a longstanding relationship with Graham that has periodically gone sour but regularly rebounded.
Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., has a friendship with Trump dating back to when he was the governor of Florida. Scott touted that friendship in a letter to colleagues announcing he would run against Sens. John Thune, R-S.D., and John Cornyn, R-Texas to succeed McConnell, who is stepping down from leadership at the end of the year.
“I will protect senators’ interests while helping President Trump accomplish his goals,” Scott wrote. “Our country’s success and our Conference’s success will be dependent on President Trump’s success.”
Scott, of course, must first survive his own re-election race against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, D-Fla., on Tuesday.
Most senators say Thune and Cornyn are the candidates with the best shot at winning the top Senate leadership post. The internal election, also set for Nov. 13, will have secret ballots – so Trump’s influence may be limited, should he decide to weigh in.
Both do have baggage with the former president: Thune opposed Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, and Trump went on to support his primary opponent in 2022. Thune initially endorsed Tim Scott for president this cycle before later endorsing Trump. Cornyn also condemned Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021, and later said he didn’t think Trump could win another presidential race, but endorsed him in this election.
Thune and Cornyn have worked to mend their relations with Trump. Each has visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago, spoken with his transition team and have communicated with him several times throughout the year. Cornyn also spent time with Trump in Texas and a rally in Nevada – and was the lawmaker who managed to get the most bills passed into law during Trump’s first term.
Looking across the aisle, Trump has not developed a reputation as a bipartisan dealmaker, though some Democrats facing tough reelection campaigns in 2024 have touted their ability to work with the former president on key issues.
Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., said he “secured billions for Trump’s border wall” and pushed back on Biden administration efforts to peel back Trump-era immigration policies, and Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, has touted his collaboration with Trump on trade issues to protect American workers. Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, predicted in an op-ed that Trump will win the election and said: “I’m OK with that.”
A Trump victory would also open the door to other dealmaking with Democrats. After all, the 2026 midterm campaign is next, and any Democratic lawmakers representing purple or red districts or states would likely expect to face political pressure back home to show they worked with Trump as president.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: If Trump wins, he’ll lean heavily on these Republicans in Congress
