Ann Selzer, the pollster behind the Des Moines Register’s respected Iowa Poll, has announced her retirement just weeks after the survey incorrectly showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a 3 percentage point lead over Donald Trump in Iowa.
Just before Election Day, the poll showed Harris leading Trump 44-47 among likely voters. The news was a last minute injection of hope for Democrat voters desperate to keep Trump out of the White House.
Those hopes turned to ash on Election Day; Trump defeated Harris soundly, 56 to 43 per cent.
Selzer penned a guest column in the Des Moines Register announcing her retirement. After the poll failed to reflect reality, she called it a “big miss” and theorized that her poll may have “energize[d] and activate[d] Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to a victory.”
While Selzer is retiring, the poll will reportedly continue to operate. Gannett Media — which owns the Register — told CNN via its chief content officer Kristin Roberts that the poll will “evolve as we find new ways to accurately capture public sentiment and the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues.”
“Our mission is to provide trusted news and content to our readers and the public,” Roberts told CNN. “We did not deliver on that promise when we shared results of the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, which did not accurately capture the outcome of the presidential election.”
Selzer says in her column that she is not being driven out of the polling space due to this year’s misfire. She said that this year was always going to be her final year conducting the poll.
“Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” Selzer wrote.
She expressed excitement to move onto other projects, but also defended her work and her integrity.
“My integrity means a lot to me,” she wrote. ” To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade. For those who know me best, I appreciate the supportive notes and calls reminding me that what drew me to them as friends, colleagues and clients was commitment to truth and accuracy — both in my professional and my personal relationships.”
Before 2024, the Iowa Poll under Selzer was considered as close to solid as a presidential survey could get. The survey was only off on its presidential prediction once — incorrectly putting John Kerry over George W Bush by 5 percentage points in 2004 — and its only other notably major blunder was overestimating the amount former President Barack Obama would win by in 2008.
Despite being proud of her work and insisting that her leaving was planned well in advance, Selzer admitted that she would have preferred to go out on a “final poll aligned with Election Day results.”
“Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist,” she said. “So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.”
