With just weeks to go until Election Day, few states are more politically polarized in the 2024 presidential election than Arizona.
Arizona has 11 electoral college votes, placing it in a tie for 14th-most votes among states. Those 11 votes are up for grabs and crucial to secure a victory for either Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump.
Both candidates know Arizona is a key state in their path to the White House and are ramping up campaign efforts across the state. Harris and Trump have already made numerous stops in Arizona, and Harris is set to make another campaign stop in Phoenix on Sept. 27.
Their respective vice-presidential candidates also have made recent campaign stops in Arizona, with Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance holding early September campaigns in Tempe and Mesa, respectively.
Here’s a look at Arizona’s electoral college status, and how the Grand Canyon State could change the outcome of the November election.
Is Arizona a swing state?
Arizona is one of America’s closely watched swing states, meaning it is viewed as important in determining the overall result of a presidential election.
With 11 electoral college votes, Arizona is one of the states with heavy political sway because polls show a breathlessly close race that could go either way.
It’s important to remember that a candidate’s victory in Arizona doesn’t just mean they gain 11 electoral college votes. It also means that the candidate’s opponent loses 11 electoral college votes. Harris or Trump will need to clinch a minimum of 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win the White House.
Arizona was one of the states that was crucial to Democrat Joe Biden’s path to victory in the 2020 election. Arizona had previously supported the Republican presidential candidate for five consecutive elections, including Trump’s victory in the 2016 election. In 2020, Biden flipped the state, giving him an 11 electoral college vote advantage.
Biden had plenty of votes from his victories in Georgia and Pennsylvania, other states that he flipped from the 2016 election. But had Biden not won those states, his victory in Arizona would have determined whether he had won the election. Win Arizona’s 11 electoral college votes, and he was in. Lose them, and Trump would have been victorious.
Those same swing states and Arizona could define the 2024 presidential election.
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Why is Arizona considered a battleground state?
Arizona is a swing state because it is also a battleground state, which means the two major political parties have similar levels of support among voters.
Since the 1948 presidential election, Arizona has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate twice: once in 1996, when the state voted for Bill Clinton, and once in 2020, when the state voted for Joe Biden.
For most of Arizona’s election history, Republicans have by far outvoted Democrats in presidential races.
A glimpse at the 2024 polls, however, shows a much closer battle in Arizona, which because of a variety of factors, including demographic changes, is no longer the reliably pro-GOP red state it once was.
2020 was a notable toss-up year for Arizona, with Biden winning the state by just over 10,000 votes. That’s an incredibly slim margin for a state with roughly 4.1 million registered voters. The 2016 race came down to about 91,000 votes, while the 2012 race came down to about 208,000.
In fact, there has not been a single presidential election since 1988 that was decided by more than 210,000 votes. The last time Arizona was decided by more than 210,000 votes was in 1988, when George H.W. Bush won Arizona over Michael Dukakis by about 248,000 votes.
That’s why Arizona is considered a toss-up.
Arizona also has a large population of independent voters. The July voter registration statistics from the Arizona Secretary of State’ Office show that independent voters ― officially unaffiliated or “other” voters who do not align with a party ― accounted for nearly 1.4 million or nearly 34% of the state’s registered voters. Republicans make up 35% of Arizona voters, and Democrats account for 29% of the state’s voters.
Early polls show that Arizona will yet again be a tight race in the 2024 election. A New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted from Sept. 17 to Sept. 21, shows Trump ahead 50% to 45% in Arizona. But in August, the same poll showed Harris up by 4 percentage points.
What are the nation’s swing states?
Political analysts and politicians have identified several major battleground or swing states. Those states are:
- Arizona, 11 electoral college votes
- Georgia, 16 electoral college votes
- Michigan, 15 electoral college votes
- North Carolina, 16 electoral college votes
- Pennsylvania, 19 electoral college votes
- Wisconsin, 10 electoral college votes
- Nevada, 6 electoral college votes
Reach the reporter at zbradshaw@gannett.com or on X at @ZachBradshaw14.
