The Ivy League’s four-team single-elimination tournament has been Yale’s to lose for much of its existence since 2017: the Bulldogs have won it to advance to the NCAA Tournament four of seven times.
They enter Saturday’s semifinal against Cornell as the odds-on favorites to win it for the third straight year, priced at -125 at FanDuel and reflecting a 51 percent chance in Kalshi market.
Lots of that chalk pertains to Yale being the only Ivy League school to rank within both KenPom’s top 100 in net rating; you’ll find the rest buried at 150th and below.
The Bulldogs will draw Cornell on Saturday at 11 a.m. ET, a rematch of last year’s championship game.
Yale’s biggest edge in the field is that it is an elite shooting team, ranking No. 3 overall in the nation in 3-point rate; it’s sinking shots from beyond the arc at 40.1 percent.
A lot of this production comes from the fingertips of senior forward Nick Townsend, who is hitting 48.3 percent from three and averages 16.5 points per night.
Slowing down Townsend is crucial, but Yale is a team with five players averaging double figures.
Yale split the season series with Cornell, eviscerating the Big Red 102-68 on Jan. 17 before getting upset 72-69 on Feb. 27 as 4.5-point favorites. That one was thanks to Jake Fiegen nailing the go-ahead 3-pointer with one second left.
Cornell is the host team of the tournament and is considered the second betting favorite despite being tabbed the No. 4 seed. Here’s why: The Big Red can match Yale’s shooting as the most explosive offense in the conference that averages 86.2 points, 14th-most in college hoops. They’re a top-10 team in two-point shooting at 61 percent and lead the nation in assist average at 21.2.
When they shoot well, they win big; they secured five conference wins by 20-plus points. Their problem is they can’t defend, as Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency has them ranked second-worst in the conference.
Harvard should demonstrate just the opposite when it faces Penn at 2 p.m. The Crimson check in as a top-20 program in adjusted defensive efficiency and they’re the best Ivy in defending against both two-point and three-point shooting.
The Crimson win by discipline. They commit only 13.6 fouls per game and when they go to the line, they hit over 80 percent of their free throws. Both of those marks are top-three overall. Between Robert Hinton, Tey Barbour and Thomas Batties II, the Crimson have a versatile offensive artillery. The concern with Harvard is its limited depth as all five starters often play 34-plus minutes.
Penn matches up with them as the tournament’s hottest squad, having won seven of its past eight games. The Quakers are known for their physicality, strong ball security and successful rebounding.
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Their only real blemish in conference play was a 77-60 loss to Yale on Jan. 24. Otherwise, four of their five Ivy losses came by five points or fewer. Penn’s balanced offensive tandem of Ethan Roberts and TJ Power provides them with dependable late-game scorers in tight contests.
The Quakers are my favorite value pick of the tournament as 6/1 longshots because they’re an overwhelming presence in turnovers forced. The No. 8 overall team in defensive turnovers have proven they can beat the likes of Harvard and Cornell and contended with Yale in a four-point loss on Feb. 21.
That kind of poise could pay dividends against opponents whose shooting dependence has only proved volatile.
THE PLAY: Penn (+600, FanDuel)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
