Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election took a blow over the past week according to the latest forecast from The Economist, which lists her as “neck and neck” with Donald Trump less than a month out from election day.
The most recent version of the model, which combines state and national opinion polls together with economic indicators, predicts Harris will pick up between 196 and 367 Electoral College votes, with 270 as the median outcome. By contrast it forecasts Trump to receive between 171 and 342 Electoral College votes, with his median result two lower at 268.
Notably this is an improvement for Trump on The Economist election forecast released this time last week, which gave Trump a median of 264 Electoral College votes, and the one two weeks ago which put him on 257 Electoral College votes.
The Economist runs “over 10,000 simulations of the election” that feed into its model, with the chances of an overall Electoral College tie being less than one in 100.
Newsweek contacted representatives of the Kamala Harris and Donald Trump presidential election campaigns for comment on Friday by email outside of regular office hours.
Harris received a major polling blow on Wednesday with the publication of a Quinnipiac University survey showing Trump ahead by three and two points respectively in the crucial battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin, which Joe Biden won in 2020. However, the same poll did put her ahead by three points in the crunch state of Pennsylvania. Quinnipiac University polled 1,007 likely voters in Michigan, 1,073 in Wisconsin and 1,412 in Pennsylvania during October 3-7.
Harris’s declining performance according to The Economist is in line with election analysis published by polling website FiveThirtyEight on Wednesday, which gave the Democrat a 53 percent chance of winning in November, down substantially from the 64 percent chance she had according to a similar study published on September 18.
Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at the Rawhide Event Center on October 10, 2024 in Chandler, Arizona. Harris’s chances of victory in November have fallen according to the latest election model from The Economist.
Brandon Bell/GETTY
Leading bookmakers have also cut the odds on a Trump win over the past week. On Thursday Sky Bet, William Hill and 888.sport offered odds of 4/5 on the Republican nominee winning, an improvement on October 2 when they all had odds of 10/11.
On Thursday former President Barack Obama made his first campaign appearance for the Harris campaign, when he addressed a rally in Pennsylvania aimed at Black voters.
In comments aimed at male voters Obama said: “We have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running. Now, I also want to say that that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers.
“You’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses. I’ve got a problem with that. Part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and reasons for that.”
Obama added: “We need a president who actually cares about solving problems and making your life better, and that’s what Kamala Harris will do.”
Thursday also saw Trump deliver a speech at the Detroit Economic Club in which he claimed the city is “a developing area more than most places in China.”
Referring to Harris Trump said: “Our whole country will end up being like Detroit if she’s your president. You’re going to have a mess on your hands.”
