As speculation grows over Vice President Kamala Harris’ political future, new polling sheds light on her potential chances in a California gubernatorial race.
With current Governor Gavin Newsom term-limited in 2026, Harris’ name has been floated as a possible contender.
Newsweek has contacted Harris for comment via email.
Why It Matters
There is currently no clear successor to replace Gavin Newsom as California governor. And if Harris were to put herself forward for California governor, it would mark her first major political move since losing the 2024 presidential election to Donald Trump.
Some Democrats believe that if Harris were to run, she would start ahead of the pack, with national name recognition, a much-coveted mailing list and a deep bench of volunteers, resulting in a “field-clearing effect” on the Democratic nomination.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris accepts the chairman’s award during the 56th NAACP Image Awards on Saturday, Feb. 22, 2025, in Pasadena, Calif.
Richard Shotwell/Invision/AP
What To Know
Despite not having declared her intention to run for the position, former Vice President Harris is believed by some to be a front-runner due to her name recognition in California.
And polls reflect this. According to Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics/The Hill, conducted between February 10-11 among 1,000 California registered voters, nearly 6 in 10 Democratic primary voters in California, 57 percent, would vote for Harris as governor.
Former Representative Katie Porter, who left the House for an unsuccessful Senate run last year, received 9 percent support, while former California State Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa and current Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis each garnered 4 percent. Seventeen percent of voters remained undecided.
Without Harris in the race, Porter’s support rose to 21 percent, followed by Villaraigosa at 9 percent and Kounalakis at 5 percent. A significant 45 percent of Democratic primary voters were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3 points.
Another poll from UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times, conducted in October, showed Harris with a substantial advantage over other candidates for the 2026 California gubernatorial race.
According to the poll, about 72 percent of Democrats said they would be very likely or somewhat likely support Harris, compared with 8 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of voters with no party preference. Democrats in the state have a 2-1 voter registration advantage over Republicans. The poll surveyed 4,838 registered voters in California and had a margin of error of about 2 percentage points.
But a Capitol Weekly poll published on February 6 showed Harris in a closer race among the entire electorate. It showed 23 percent of all voters would support her, with 21 percent backing Republican businessman John Cox. Porter placed third with 16 percent, and former Republican candidate for state controller Lanhee Chen received 10 percent support. The poll surveyed 1,198 voters in California. The margin of error was not available.
More than half-dozen candidates have officially announced that they are running for California governor. They include former Democratic mayor of Los Angeles Antonio Villaraigosa, former speaker of the California State Assembly Toni Atkins, the state’s current lieutenant governor Eleni Kounalakis, as well as California State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former state controller Betty Yee.
Meanwhile, former Representative Porter is reportedly considering a run for governor, while former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is also seen as a potential candidate. On the Republican side, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco announced his bid last month, while former Fox News host and conservative commentator Steve Hilton is weighing a gubernatorial run, according to Fox News.
Former Trump aide Richard Grenell told reporters last month that he would consider running if Harris enters the race.
“If Kamala Harris runs for Governor, I believe that she has such baggage and hundreds of millions of dollars in educating the voters of how terrible she is, that it’s a new day in California and that the Republican actually has a shot,” he said. “And I wouldn’t say no [to running].”
Pressure on Harris to run escalated last month when Democratic California Attorney General Rob Bonta endorsed her after saying he wouldn’t run.
“I would support her if she ran, I’ve always supported her in everything she’s done. She would be field-clearing,” Politico quoted the attorney general as saying. Bonta considered running for governor last year, but changed his mind after President Donald Trump defeated Harris in the presidential race, according to Politico.
Politico also she instructed her advisers to keep her options open for either a 2026 gubernatorial campaign in her home state or a presidential bid in 2028.
“I am staying in the fight,” she repeated during phone calls.
Meanwhile, News Nation reported this week that unidentified sources have said Harris is “absolutely” planning on running for Governor and that “she was on the party circuit” in Los Angeles during the Oscars.
Last month, Harris shrugged off questions about a possible gubernatorial bid so soon after her presidential run while visiting areas impacted by recent wildfires in Los Angeles.
“I have been home for two weeks and three days. My plans are to be in touch with my community, to be in touch with the leaders and figure out what I can do to support them,” she said.
“I am here and would be here regardless of the office I hold, because it is the right thing to do, which is to show up in your community and thank the folks who are on the ground.”
Harris has had an extensive career in California politics, previously serving as San Francisco district attorney and the state’s attorney general. She was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2016.
What People Are Saying
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: “If Vice President Harris enters the Democratic Primary, she would start as the clear favorite. Without Harris in the race, the primary is wide open.”
Katie Porter said during a University of California, Irvine panel interview in December: “If Vice President Harris were to choose to run, I am certain that that would have a near field-clearing effect on the Democratic side.”
What Happens Next
California will elect its next governor in 2026 when Newsom’s term ends. Newsom is believed to be a contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination for president. However, he has not yet expressed any desire to run.
In November, Newsom had +550 odds of becoming the next president, according to SportsBettingDime, which amounts to a 15 percent chance. Harris had +2500 odds, or a 4 percent chance.
