The odds of Vice President Kamala Harris winning the 2024 presidential election have surged over the past 24 hours with leading bookmakers amid ongoing concerns about the age and mental fitness of President Joe Biden.
On Tuesday, the odds on Harris winning in November were 16/1 (5.9 percent) with Bet 365 and William Hill, but these had improved substantially to 7/1 (12.5 percent) and 9/1 (10 percent) by 3 a.m. ET on Wednesday, according to betting amalgamation website Oddschecker. Over the same period, Harris’ odds of victory increased from 20/1 (4.8 percent) to 8/1 (11.1 percent), according to Sky Bet, another prominent bookie.
The debate about whether Biden is physically and mentally fit enough for another four years in the White House increased sharply after his first presidential debate against Donald Trump on June 27, during which he appeared to lose his train of thought at several points.
At one stage, while discussing immigration policy, Biden said: “And I’m going to continue to move it until we get the total ban on…the total initiative relative to what we’re going to do with more Border Patrol and more asylum officers.” A visibly confused Trump replied: “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either.”
Kamala Harris in New York on June 21, 2024. The odds on Harris winning the 2024 presidential election have surged over the past 24 hours.
ANGELA WEISS/AFP/GETTY
According to Oddschecker, the chances of Biden winning the 2024 presidential election correspondingly fell over the past 24 hours. On Tuesday, they stood at 15/4 (21.1 percent) with Bet 365, 7/2 (22.2 percent) with Sky Bet and 3/1 (25 percent) with William Hill. However, they had widened to 4/1 (20 percent), 5/1 (16.7 percent) and 7/2 (22.2 percent), respectively, by early Wednesday morning.
Tuesday also saw the publication of a CNN poll indicating Harris would perform better than Biden in a direct presidential matchup against Trump.
The poll of 1,045 registered voters in the U.S. conducted June 28-30 found Trump had a six point lead over Biden for the presidency, with 49 percent support against 43 percent. However, against Harris this lead would be cut to two points, with 47 percent support for the presumptive GOP nominee against 45 percent for the vice president.
The survey found Harris attracted significantly more support from women and independent voters than Biden. In total, 50 percent of female voters backed Harris over Trump against 44 percent for Biden, while Harris had the support of 43 percent of independents against 34 percent for Biden.
The CNN poll also found 75 percent of registered voters believe the Democrats would have a better chance of winning the 2024 presidential election with “someone else” as their candidate, versus 25 percent who said their best chance is with Biden.
Harris defended Biden’s debating performance during a fundraiser at the Brentwood home of moviemaker Rob Reiner, where she admitted the president didn’t have his “finest hour,” but said that if you ignore “style points” the debate showed a clear difference in character between the two competitors.
Newsweek contacted Biden and Harris for comment via the White House press office by email outside of usual office hours on Wednesday.
Following the June 27 debate, the Biden campaign released internal polling showing him behind Trump with 45 percent of the vote against 46 percent for the Republican challenger.
Biden’s performance during the first presidential debate was mocked by Jon Stewart on Monday night’s episode of The Daily Show, with the veteran comedian saying it made Democrats want to “jump out of windows.”
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
