With two weeks before early voting begins in North Carolina, the presidential race is too close to call.
That’s according to a new High Point University survey, which finds Donald Trump and Kamala Harris knotted at 48% a piece among 589 likely voters.
This is just the latest poll of the southern swing state to suggest a close race.
The RealClearPolitics polling average shows just a 0.6 point Trump lead, factoring in a batch of tied polls and not including a single survey with either candidate leading by more than 3 points.
The dead heat is remarkable in a sense given that 67% of likely voters think the country is on the wrong track under the Joe Biden administration, with 55% disapproving of the president’s leadership, along with 50% who aren’t happy with Harris’ performance in her current post (against 45% approval).
But despite the Democratic nominee being underwater as vice president, survey participants are marginally more favorable to her as a candidate for the top job, with 50% approving of the campaign version of Harris against 47% disapproval.
Conversely, Trump is seen unfavorably as a candidate by 52% of respondents; 47% regard him favorably.
So why the tie?
Despite the gap in personal approval ratings between Trump and Harris, the issues that matter most to Tar Heels play to the former president’s strengths.
Thirty-one percent see improving economic conditions as the most important consideration when they vote, while 16% identify illegal immigration as their primary preoccupation. Those are the only two concerns more than 10% of respondents say matter most.
On both issues, Trump is the favored option over Biden’s understudy. By a margin of 50% to 45%, the ex-prez is seen as the champion of economic growth in this election.
And when it comes to managing immigration, 55% of North Carolina voters say Trump is better suited for the job than “Border Czar” Harris, whose administration has presided over prolonged failures in border security. Only 37% of respondents believe Harris can do as president what she failed to do as veep.
Voters also think Trump is a stronger leader than Harris, by a 47% to 40% spread. They’re also more convinced Trump will do what’s right rather than popular, 46% to 42%. And they believe, by a 50% to 39% margin, he’s better at taking action rather than just talking.
The poll was in the field between Sept. 20 and 29, as Hurricane Helene and a front that preceded it ravaged the state but before people in the western part of the state were compelled to reckon with a glacial response to the unprecedented disaster.
