Kamala Harris Would Beat Donald Trump if Election Held Again: Poll

Kamala Harris might beat Donald Trump in the popular vote if the 2024 presidential election was held today, a new poll suggests.

The Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, conducted May 1 to 6, found 47 percent of respondents who would vote in a hypothetical do-over backed Democrat Harris, compared to 42 percent for Republican Trump.

Including those who would not vote, Harris’ share of the vote dropped to 40 percent against Trump’s 36 percent.

The poll was conducted among 1,000 adults and had a margin of error of 3.2 percent.

Trump beat Harris by 2 points in the popular vote in November 2024’s election, with 50 percent to her 48 percent. He won the electoral vote, which decides the winner, by a resounding 312 to 226.

Several polls before the election had either a tie or Harris on top in the popular vote.

In the hypothetical rematch, Harrisheld a significant advantage among those who say they did not vote in 2024.

Among these, 36 percent of respondents backed Harris and 22 percent voting for Trump. Forty-three percent of non-voters surveyed said they still would not vote in 2024.

Limiting to those who voted, Trump’s support is lower than the real 2024 result at a 43-43 tie.

Why It Matters

Despite her loss in the 2024 presidential race, Harris is viewed as a top contender for the 2028 election, which will likely see a crowded field of Democrats vying for the party’s nomination. Harris hasn’t said for sure she plans to run, and she is also speculated to be considering a run for California’s governorship in 2026.

Proponents of a Harris 2028 run say she ran a good campaign despite difficult headwinds in 2024. They argue she significantly narrowed the gap compared to former President Joe Biden, who faced a flurry of bad polls after a televised debate against Trump that preceeded his withdrawal from the race.

Others, however, argue that it’s time for the party to embrace new leaders, and that her support for moderate Republicans, such as former Representative Liz Cheney, has cost the party among key voter groups.

What to Know

Trump’s approval ratings plummeted after he introduced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2, accoding to most pollsters. The move sparked turmoil in stock and bond markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recording its largest decline since June 2020 before rebounding days later.

Since then several polls have shown that voters don’t trust Trump on the economy. That includes the Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll which shows that Trump’s net approval on the economy stands at -17 points, with 38 approving and 58 disapproving.

Trump fares even worse on the issue of prices and inflation, with his net approval at -32 points, with 31 percent approving and 63 percent disapproving.

Meanwhile, the poll shows that a majority of Americans (53 percent) believe the national economy has worsened over the past year, while just 25 percent think it has improved. Views on personal finances are slightly more stable, with 42 percent saying their situation is unchanged, 36 percent reporting it has worsened, and 19 percent feeling better off. When it comes to President Trump’s economic policies, 56 percent say they’ve made the economy worse, compared to 22 percent who say they’ve helped. Another 15 percent see no impact, and 7 percent are unsure.

But Trump is not just underwater on the economy. The Numbers/Verasight poll shows that he is underwater on all issues except border, mirroring the latest Fox News poll which showed the same result.

That means that Trump’s approval rating is also just underwater on the issue of immigration, previously his strongest issue, with 49 percent disapproving and 47 percent approving.

It comes amid increased legal scrutiny and criticism of Trump’s deportation policies, including the controversial removal of migrants to a notorious prison in El Salvador. One high-profile case involves Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was deported from Maryland in what the DOJ called an “administrative error.” The Trump administration labeled Garcia a member of MS-13, now designated a terrorist group, but his family and lawyers deny any connection.

And the Numbers/Verasight poll suggests that Garcia’s case may be driving negative sentiment about Trump’s handling of the economy.

In a survey where half the participants were informed about the mistaken deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, support for deporting all undocumented immigrants fell to 39 percent, with 43 percent opposed. When asked specifically about deporting individuals with court-ordered protections like Garcia, nearly half (49 percent) opposed it, while 29 percent supported it and 22 percent were unsure. In a related question, 45 percent of respondents said the U.S. should help wrongly deported immigrants return, compared to 35 percent who favored keeping them abroad.

Such discontent with Trump’s presidency could play into the hands of Harris, who continues to be a vocal critic of the president, if she decides to run for the White House again in 2028.

Harris has not said if she is running, but polls suggest she is the front runner.

Polling aggregation site Race to the WH currently shows Harris, who lost to Trump in 2024, leading the pack with a polling average of 27.2 percent. She is followed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in second at 15.9 percent, former Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg in third at 12.8 percent, Senator Cory Booker is fourth at 8.6 percent and California Governor Gavin Newsom is fifth at 7.1 percent.

However, some polls tell a different story. An April poll from Data for Progress found that while Harris is still favored among likely Democratic primary voters, a growing number are leaning toward other candidates such as Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez or Booker.

Of those, 18 percent said they would vote for Harris in the primary. Fourteen percent said they would back Buttigieg and 12 percent would vote for each Ocasio-Cortez and Booker.

Eight percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Newsom, while Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro won support from 5 percent of respondents.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker each received the backing of four percent of respondents.

This was Harris’ weakest showing among other polls of the 2028 primary.

An Echelon Insights poll of 449 registered voters from April 10 to April 11, 2025, showed her with 28 percent support. A YouGov poll of 650 registered voters from March 30 to April 1, 2025, showed her with 25 percent. A SurveyUSA poll of 835 likely voters from February 13 to 16, 2025, showed her with 37 percent support.

What People Are Saying

Senator John Hickenlooper, the Democrat from Colorado, told The Hill: “I think she will add value to” the national conversation. “What’s going to happen over the next six to 18 months is going to be lots of Democrats having lots of different opinions about what our priorities should be. What are the values we have to put first?”

“I think she will have a valuable perspective on that,” he said.

Senator Martin Heinrich, the Democrat from New Mexico, toldthe same newspaper: “I’m a big fan of Kamala Harris, I enjoyed serving with her. I think given the time frame that we have, which is very different from what we were dealing with last time, that it’s going to be an open process.”

What Happens Next

The next real presidential elections are scheduled for November 7, 2028.