Latest surveys on Harris vs. Trump with 4 days to go

It is officially election month, and presidential election polls indicate former President Donald Trump could be edging ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris among national voters.

While the national polls give a temperature check of the electorate, the Electoral College system means that the race is likely to be decided by seven battleground states. An exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk poll out Friday shows Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania, the swing state with the most electoral votes.

Trump is visiting two other “blue wall” states Friday with rallies scheduled in Wisconsin and Michigan. Harris is also planning to visit Wisconsin.

Here is what to know about where the race stands.

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Presidential election polls from the swing states

Here are some recent polls out from swing states, the seven that are likely to be the deciding factors in this presidential election:

Pennsylvania

• AtlasIntel: Trump 48.5%, Harris 47.4%, with third-party candidates included (Oct. 30-31; 1,738 likely voters; margin of error: ±2 percentage points)

• USA TODAY/Suffolk: Trump 49%, Harris 49% (Oct. 27-30; 500 likely voters; margin of error ±4.4 percentage points).

• Marist: Harris, 50%, Trump 48% (Oct. 27-30; 1,400 likely voters; margin of error: ±3.4 percentage points)

Michigan

• AtlasIntel: Trump 49.2%, Harris 48.3% (Oct. 30-31; 1,136 likely voters; margin of error: ±3 percentage points)

• Marist: Harris 51%, Trump 48% (Oct. 27-30; 1,214 likely voters; margin of error ±3.5 percentage points)

Wisconsin

• AtlasIntel: Trump 48.5%, Harris 48.2% (Oct. 30-31; 673 likely voters; margin of error: ±4 percentage points)

• Marist: Harris 50%, Trump 48% (Oct. 27-30; 1,330 likely voters; margin of error: ±3.4 percentage points)

Georgia

• AtlasIntel: Trump 48.8%, Harris 47.2% (Oct. 30-31; 1,212 likely voters; margin of error: ±3 percentage points)

• CNN/SSRS: Trump: 48%, Harris 47% (Oct. 23-28; 732 registered voters; margin of error ± 4.7 percentage points among likely voters)

North Carolina

• AtlasIntel: Trump 50.7%, Harris 46.7% (Oct. 30-31; 1,373 likely voters; margin of error: ±3 percentage points)

• CNN/SSRS: Harris, 48%, Trump 47% (Oct. 23-28; 750 registered voters; margin of error ± 4.5 percentage points among likely voters)

Nevada

• AtlasIntel:Trump 50.5%, Harris 46.9% (Oct. 30-31; 845 likely voters; margin of error: ±3 percentage points)

• Emerson College/RealClearWorld: Harris 48%, Trump 47% (Oct. 29-31; 700 likely voters; margin of error ±3.6 percentage points)

Arizona

• AtlasIntel: Trump 50.8%, Harris 45.9% (Oct. 30-31; 1,005 likely voters; margin of error: ±3 percentage points)

• CNN/SSRS: Harris 48%, Trump 47% (Oct. 21-26; 781 registered voters; margin of error ±4.4 percentage points among likely voters)

Trump leads Harris by 2% in new AtlasIntel poll

Trump leads Harris by two percentage points in a new national poll from AtlasIntel released Thursday afternoon.

The survey of 3,490 likely voters from across the U.S. showed Trump leading Harris 49.1% to 47.2% with a margin of error of two percentage points. When asked to choose between the candidates in a race without third-party options, 49.6% of respondents said they would vote for Trump, and 48.2% said they would vote for Harris.

The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. More polls from AtlasIntel are expected before Election Day.

Trump gains a narrow lead in latest TIPP poll

The TIPP Tracking Poll shows Trump moved into the lead by one percentage point Friday after being tied with Harris on Thursday.

The latest survey of 1,249 likely voters showed Trump leading Harris 49% to 48%. Conducted Tuesday through Thursday, the poll had a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

“(The poll) shows a tight and steady race, each candidate setting up for a smooth, close landing,” TIPP stated. The pollsters expect the numbers to hover between Harris +1 and Trump +2 for the final days ahead of the election.

Things to keep in mind about polling

The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.

When a candidate’s lead is “inside” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.

Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.

Kinsey Crowley is a trending news reporter at USA TODAY. Reach her at kcrowley@gannett.com, and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Presidential election polls 2024: Latest surveys on Harris vs. Trump