In case you’re still wondering why Donald Trump worked a shift under the Golden Arches, new polling from Pennsylvania offers one insight.
It’s a way of attracting voters who don’t always turn out for every election.
The more irregular voters Trump can get to the polls, the more likely he is to take Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes, a Monmouth College survey of 824 registered voters between Oct. 24 and 28 reveals.
Trump is up 47% to 46% over Kamala Harris overall, as well as with people who voted in 2020 (an election Joe Biden narrowly won in the state).
But an analysis of historic voting patterns reveals big breaks based on predisposition.
Among high-propensity voters, who can be relied upon to turn out for every election, the vice president leads 51% to 46%.
But presidential cycles turn out the less frequent voters also, and that’s where the man from Mar-a-Lago shines.
Among medium-propensity voters who’ve voted in a majority of general elections over the last decade, Trump is up 49% to 43%.
And among low-propensity voters, who rarely show up even for general elections, Trump leads 47% to 42%.
Democratic hopes are tied to a low-turnout election that looks more like the 2022 midterm than the 2020 presidential cycle.
Harris is up 48% to 46% in that model, though it’s hard to imagine given the time and treasure invested in the state already that’ll prevail.
“Trump’s path to victory in Pennsylvania is by turning out low-propensity voters. In a normal election this may be difficult to do. For many, their lack of participation is due to an underlying distrust in government itself. Being drawn out to participate in the democratic process by Trump’s ‘burn it down’ appeal could be the ultimate irony,” said pollster Patrick Murray.
It remains to be seen how turning out the less-likely voters will affect the Senate race, where Republican Dave McCormick isn’t quite as strong as Trump with those groups.
Democratic incumbent Bob Casey leads 45% to 44% overall and 49% to 44% with the high-propensity cohort. McCormick runs behind Trump with medium-propensity voters but still leads Casey 47% to 44%. But among low-propensity voters, Casey and McCormick tie, with 41% each.
Trump-Casey split-ticket voters add up to 4% of the electorate, while Harris-McCormick voters are relative unicorns, representing 1% of the sample.
