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On Sept. 26, 2024, I so confidently wrote, “Kamala Harris is Brat, will win election because of it.” While Kamala Harris achieved virality in certain circles, Donald Trump achieved it in others.
The Associated Press called the presidency for Donald Trump at 5:34 a.m. Nov. 6, sending him back to the White House with an electoral and popular mandate. This was not only shocking because I thought this would be a close race yet again, but because Generation Z largely carried the election for him.
Not only that, the gender gap swung the election for Trump in every single swing state.
Historically, when elections have high voter turnout, Democrats outperform Republicans. While it is typically hard to get Republican voters to turn out in national elections, efforts that focused on early voting were targeted at battleground states this past election.
States that are considered safe for their respective parties became more partisan and saw less voter turnout than in previous elections, all while swing states saw closer and closer election results.
In most swing states, voter turnout either met or exceeded the levels seen in 2020. Trump also saw national gains with Hispanic voters and a 15% increase with young men overall, while Harris underperformed against Trump with caucasian women.
In 2024, states considered battlegrounds included Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden carried the votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, narrowly losing North Carolina to Trump.
The most dramatic shifts we saw between 2020 and 2024 happened in Nevada, Michigan and Arizona. Arizona specifically saw a shift to the right for Trump, despite voting Democrat Ruben Gallego into the Senate.
Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin spoke on results from Wyandotte, Michigan, in the Democratic response to Trump’s joint address: “President Trump and I both won here in November. It might not seem like it, but plenty of places like this still exist across the United States.”
I believe these shifts in demographic turnout — limited ideological choice and split-ticket voting — are largely what cost Harris these battleground pickups made by Biden.
Research suggests that Democrats need around 64% of the Latino vote to win the presidency; Harris only won 52%, which tied John Kerry for worst performance by a Democrat since his race in 2004.
This is increasingly important, as the Hispanic population accounts for around 36.2 million — or 14.7% — of total eligible voters. Arizona and Nevada have some of the highest shares of eligible Hispanic voters, at 25% and 22% respectively.
Harris tried to focus her efforts on women like Trump did with men. But while Harris was trusted significantly more to handle the issue of abortion, this was almost entirely what the campaign focused on with women.
When women voters were asked what the biggest issues were for them — aside from abortion rights — the top reported answer was inflation, followed by threats to democracy and immigration and border security. This doesn’t mean that abortion was not an important issue, but other issues were obviously at the forefront of voters’ minds and were ignored.
In 2024, Gen Z men shifted staunchly to the right, with Trump beating Harris by two percentage points just four years after Biden won by 11 points.
While it may seem like these men embraced hardcore MAGA ideologies, most of this flip in the vote came from nonengaged voters or ones who prioritized the economy and were exhausted by the roadblocks or inaction of Congress.
But the problem is not only that Trump directly appealed to this demographic in one election cycle; it’s the growing concern that Democrats are isolating key parts of their traditional voter base.
Part of this blame can be attributed to democratic miscalculation and the inability of officials to relate to straight, working-class, cisgender young men. But it is also the fact that white men respond more negatively to things like diversity, equity and inclusion, gun control, LGBTQIA+ rights, affirmative action and other programs, which is not acceptable or excusable.
I can understand that the partisanship between the Democratic party and the Republican party leaves many people lost and disengaged in politics. This causes a tug-of-war every election season with voters caught in the middle of terrible options they can’t be quite happy with either way.
Trump’s main focus on battleground states and demographics with historically low turnout, as well as single-issue voting led to a surprising result that reshaped the political map and what we thought possible in a polarized America.
It also shows us a concerning neglect and selfishness for the most vulnerable in our democracy — and our democracy itself.
Reach Caden Proulx at letters@collegian.com or on social media @CSUCollegian.
