Oddsmakers might be overreacting to poor play by the Michigan Wolverines, who come into Wednesday’s home game against the Maryland Terrapins as small favorites.
The Wolverines are favored by 2.5 points at BetMGM Sportsbook, although the Terrapins were initially bet down to 1.5 before there was buyback to move the line back to it’s opening figure.
Michigan skated through its schedule by going 22-7 but did so by thin margins, tallying a 13-16 against the spread (ATS) mark despite its strong record.
Meanwhile, the Wolverines were recently blown out by Michigan State and Illinois.
Maryland enters this clash 12-6 in the Big Ten, having lost a close contest to Michigan State and downing Penn State in a tight one in its last two games.
Have the books overcorrected on Michigan’s poor play, but undoubtable ceiling?
Maryland vs. Michigan odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | +2.5 (-115) | +115 | Over 154.5 (-105) |
| Michigan | -2.5 (-105) | -140 | Under 154.5 (-115) |
Maryland vs. Michigan prediction
Maryland is a team centered primarily around guard play, led by Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel.
Michigan is much the opposite. It has have two seven-footers, Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf, clogging up the paint at any given time.
Where things get dicey for Michigan is the turnovers.
The Wolverines give the ball up at an embarrassing pace, ranking 337th in turnovers per game this season (14.3 turnovers per game.)
That spells bad news for the Wolverines, considering the Terrapins force 14.07 turnovers per game, 45th-best in the nation.
Maryland also has the 21st-best turnover margin per game (3.6).
If the Wolverines keep turning it over at this pace, they will not last long in March.
They are not playing well right now at all either. Indiana, a bubble team, just annihilated them at home Sunday.
Typically, I view turnovers as a bit of a variance-based flukey stat that can flip from game to game, but Michigan isn’t even playing well enough for me to bet on them Wednesday.
Betting on College Basketball?
My model has Maryland as very slight underdogs, 76.8 to 77.5, giving some value on Maryland +2.5 for this prime-time tilt.
Michigan’s ATS trends are so bad, and they win on such thin margins that the Terrapins should win or lose a tight one.
PICK: Maryland +2.5 (-110, Bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
