Michael Cohen says Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state in the presidential election, will be “called early” for Vice President Kamala Harris, in a new episode of his podcast.
Cohen, now a vocal critic of former President Donald Trump, previously worked as his lawyer and testified against him in his criminal hush money trial in May.
During a Saturday “Mea Culpa” podcast episode on the left-leaning outlet MeidasTouch Network, Cohen spoke with Gabriel Sherman, the writer of “The Apprentice” biopic.
The film, directed by Ali Abbasi, tells a version of Trump’s life in New York in the 1970s and 1980s, focusing on his relationships with mentor Roy Cohn and his first wife, Ivana Trump.
Trump has expressed his disapproval of the movie on his Truth Socia platform, writing “A FAKE and CLASSLESS Movie written about me, called, The Apprentice (Do they even have the right to use that name without approval?), will hopefully ‘bomb,'” he wrote.
About forty minutes into their conversation, Sherman reflects on national polling in the presidential election, noting that most polls show Harris leading Trump in the popular vote, but “if you look at the swing state polls, they’re much closer, particularly in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.”
Harris and Trump continue to fluctuate and edge out one another in swing state polls, often with leads within the margin of errors.
Michael Cohen attends “The Apprentice” premiere at the DGA New York Theater on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in New York.
Charles Sykes/Invision/AP
While nationwide and aggregate polls gauge voter sentiment, the presidential election is ultimately decided by individual states and their Electoral College votes.
To win the presidency, a candidate must secure 270 electoral votes, which doesn’t always align with the national popular vote.
State-specific victories are crucial to securing electoral votes, as seen in the 2016 election, when former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the presidency by failing to reach 270 Electoral College votes.
“I think he [Trump] loses by a bigger margin than what you think. I believe Pennsylvania will be called early in the race, because I believe that the people of Pennsylvania, and the Black community of Pennsylvania and Gen Z I think they [expletive] hate him,” Cohen said.
Pennsylvania, which boasts 19 Electoral College votes—more than any other swing state—could determine the outcome of the election. An early call is likely to signal who wins the presidency.
Harris’ clearest path to victory next month would be to win the three “blue wall” battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win the swing states of North Carolina and Georgia while flipping Pennsylvania.
Cohen continued, “My feeling is that the same now applies with Michigan,” citing union support for Harris, although while Harris is backed by the United Auto Workers, the Teamsters and the International Association of Fire Fighters have notably declined to endorse either candidate this election.
Cohen said he believes there are many people who are just agreeing with their family members in support of Trump’s candidacy, “But then they get to the polls and then they do the exact opposite,” implying they will vote for Harris.
Sherman replied, “But in 2016 there was the ‘secret’ Trump vote that went the other way, right?” In 2016, majority of polls predicted Clinton to win the White House; however, in part due to a number of silent, “secret” Trump voters, he pulled ahead on election night. Cohen said he believed this time they would go “the opposite way,” and vote for Harris.
“I do not believe that Trump will accept the defeat, he will continue because that’s the grift, that’s all he has got left,” he said.
Newsweek has reached out to Trump’s campaign via email on Saturday.
Concerns have grown over the possibility that, if Trump loses, he might reject the results, as Trump did not accept the 2020 election results, claiming was stolen from him, despite no evidence of widespread voter fraud.
He has repeatedly said he would accept the 2024 results only if it’s a “fair and free election,” raising doubts about the integrity of the process.
The state has extraordinary tight margins, much narrower than some national aggregate polls that show Harris with a 2-percentage point lead.
The New York Times‘ Pennsylvania aggregate poll has Harris ahead of Trump, 49 to 48 percent while The Hill’s aggregate polling puts Harris at 48.7 percent and Trump at 48.3 percent in the state.
FiveThirtyEight shows a much closer race, with a 0.1 percent margin in the Keystone State with Harris slightly leading at 47.9 percent and Trump at 47.7 percent.
