With MLB’s Aug. 3 trade deadline less than a month away, here are four questions that could shape the Dodgers’ deadline plans, as they try to shore up their bid for a third-consecutive World Series.
1) Can they trust their rotation’s health … and depth?
With the best record in the majors and a division title already all but secured, the Dodgers approach the deadline as the best kind of buyer.
One who has virtually no real needs.
This year’s lineup is practically the same as last year’s (just with Kyle Tucker instead of Michael Conforto). The bullpen has looked better and deeper than a season ago, and should only get stronger once Edwin Díaz returns. The bench is full of experience. There are talented young players in the minors who could help provide reinforcements if needed.
The only way things could really go sideways is if they suffer rotation injuries –– a fear that has only been raised by Tyler Glasnow (back spasms) and Blake Snell (elbow procedure) missing most of the first half of the year.
Obviously, top trade target Tarik Skubal would take care of that problem.
If there is one needle-moving player who could be available at the deadline, it is him.
But if Skubal doesn’t get dealt, or comes with an asking price from the Tigers that surpasses the Dodgers’ comfort range, the front office will have to make two calculations:
Are they confident that all of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Glasnow and Snell will be healthy and available come October?
And if not, would they trust Justin Wrobleski, Roki Sasaki, Emmet Sheehan, or one of their other less-experienced arms to start a playoff game?
If the answer is no to both, then Skubal might not be the only arm they could look at to hedge against potentially poor health.
2) How much of the farm are they willing to deal?
The Dodgers are the best kind of buyer for another reason, too.
They have a flourishing farm system widely ranked in the top three of the sport.
That pipeline was highly-touted even before the season began. Across-the-board performance this year has only underscored their organizational strength.
It puts the Dodgers in position to make a Skubal-sized splash if they want to.
But the question is, will they?
These are uncertain times in baseball, after all, with a looming labor battle promising at least some fundamental changes to the sport’s economic model. Salary cap or not, it’s hard to imagine there won’t be tighter restrictions on the Dodgers’ ability to spend when a new CBA is reached.
For a franchise with an aging roster and a commitment to remain competitive annually –– plus a decimated pool of draft picks this year as penalties for free-agent signings –– that makes this a particularly precarious time to give up young talent.
That said, the Dodgers do have an abundance of outfielders, starting with Josue De Paula, Mike Sirota, Eduardo Quintero and Zyhir Hope (all of whom have earned top-20 prospect rankings in the sport by either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America), but also including James Tibbs III, Charles Davalan, Zach Ehrhard and others.
Eventually, there won’t be space for all of them. And their depth at that position could allow them to be more aggressive with what they’re willing to deal.
Then again, the more prospect lottery tickets they hold for now, the better their odds of cashing in when they might need new star players in the future.
It’s a difficult dynamic to navigate, but one that will undoubtedly shape their plans over the next month.
3) Can they also double as a seller again?
One way the Dodgers have built such a strong farm system is by using the deadline to also sell off excess pieces.
This has been an annual goal for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman for years, long eager to capitalize on the inflated deadline costs for even serviceable big-league players.
Last year was the most obvious example of the strategy, when Dustin May was traded for Tibbs and Ehrhard after getting squeezed from the starting rotation, and third-string catcher Hunter Feduccia was flipped for a pitching prospect (as well as his replacement in Ben Rortvedt).
This summer, the Dodgers figure to pursue such a strategy again.
Eric Lauer’s recent improvements, for example, could make him appealing to teams in need of rotation depth (he is likely to be squeezed out of the Dodgers’ rotation anyway as Snell and Glasnow come back).
The Dodgers could also try to balance out their outfield-heavy farm system in prospect-for-prospect deals that bolster other position groups (a possibility first reported last week by The Athletic).
The Skubal sweepstakes, of course, could also prompt the Dodgers to part with big-league-ready pieces. A young starter –– such as Wrobleski, Sheehan or River Ryan –– has long been seen as a likely piece of any potential Dodgers package.
Not many buyers have the luxury to even consider such moves.
For the Dodgers, however, it will be yet another factor to consider.
4) Are the young hitters ready to step up if needed?
Ideally, the Dodgers won’t have to ask much out of Alex Freeland, Dalton Rushing or any of their other young hitters over the stretch run of the season.
But, like with the pitching staff, the threat of injuries always looms (especially for a team with the oldest lineup in the majors). And right now, there are unproven names in the mix to provide depth.
The team’s trust in Rushing might be its most important evaluation.
Will Smith’s recent neck injury has served as a reminder of the importance of having dependable catching options. And it was only last year, when Smith was again hurt at the start of the playoffs, that Rushing was bypassed as the fill-in by Rortvedt –– who proved to be the kind of crucial, albeit initially overlooked, deadline addition that the Dodgers could explore again this year.
Granted, Rushing has made strides this year, his recent miscommunication with Ohtani notwithstanding. His offensive production has also been valuable, even if it has come with outbursts of frustration mixed in.
Still, with no true alternatives behind him, has it been enough for the team to trust him to potentially handle playoff games?
It’s just one more question the Dodgers will have to ask themselves, as their deadline plans quickly come into focus.
