(Bloomberg) — Mozambique’s Constitutional Council will declare the final outcome of disputed Oct. 9 elections on Monday, with the opposition leader threatening “chaos” if it confirms what he calls a fraudulent result.
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Deadly protests have wracked the southeast African nation since Venâncio Mondlane sent his supporters into the streets in late October, after the National Electoral Commission announced the governing party’s Daniel Chapo had won the presidential ballot. The subsequent protests have left dozens dead after police used live ammunition to disperse the crowds.
The commission said Chapo got 71% of the vote, extending the 49-year rule of the Mozambique Liberation Front, or Frelimo, while Mondlane placed second with 20%. Monday’s ruling will shape what comes next, the opposition figure has repeatedly warned: either chaos or peace.
The council, Mozambique’s top electoral court, is scheduled to proclaim its decision after 3 p.m. in Maputo, the capital. The proclamation is final and not subject to appeal.
Mondlane, who fled the country after his lawyer was shot dead, has been orchestrating the protesters via livestream from an undisclosed location. He paused demonstrations last week after a cyclone struck the country, causing devastation and death.
At least 130 people have died during the protests, according to local observer group Decide Platform, with the unrest interrupting operations at Mozambique’s main port in Maputo.
It’s also hit operations at mines and the region’s biggest aluminum smelter, while causing repeated closures of the main land crossing with South Africa, impacting chrome and iron ore exports.
The party that backed Mondlane’s campaign, known by its Portuguese acronym of Podemos, presented boxes of documents to the Constitution Council that it said proved fraud. Independent observers, including from the European Union, have also flagged concerns over potential manipulation of the results and signs of ballot-box stuffing.
Frelimo has denied it rigged the vote. Many fear intensified turmoil if the council validates the results initially reported by the commission.
“We’re up for a very ugly outcome,” said Narciso Matos, rector of the Polytechnic University in Maputo. “What I see is a big explosion.”
–With assistance from Borges Nhamire.
(Updates photograph.)
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