Sometimes, the best betting logic can sound counterintuitive.
There’s no better time to illustrate this than during the NFL Playoffs, when sportsbooks begin expanding their offerings and more casual money starts to show up behind the window than on your usual football weekend.
That influx of money — and attention on the markets — will present opportunities to exploit by just using some simple game theory.
We’ll offer a few spots that offer decent upside by simply zagging while the rest of the market zigs.
Fade Puka Nacua
Going off of Nacua’s statistical line, the Rams’ offensive firepower and their opponent, it makes a lot of sense that bookmakers have installed the 24-year-old as the clear favorite (+390, FanDuel) to lead Wild Card weekend in receiving yards.
He’s the best receiver in the field this weekend, so he should be the chalk. Simple enough.
Nacua will attract plenty of action in this market, and bookmakers will be happy to take on that money because it is much more likely that he fails to come through based on his matchup.
While Nacua could certainly go off and post the most receiving yards this weekend, the environment he’s projected to play in makes that pretty unlikely, at least relative to his short odds, which equate to a 20.4 percent implied probability.
That seems a bit high when you peel back the layers.
The Rams are a 10-point favorite. That’s easily the biggest number on the board this weekend, and could be for the entire postseason. This game has plenty of blowout potential, which means there is a pretty high likelihood that Los Angeles will want this clock to be moving.
If Nacua and the Rams are up a few scores, they’ll be more than happy to hand the ball off, shorten the game and allow their best players to rest up for a stiffer challenge in Round 2.
Value Pays: Tetairoa McMillan most receiving yards (17/1, DraftKings), Kyren Williams most rushing yards (10/1, FanDuel)
You can essentially just flip the script from the section above about Nacua.
While the Rams will want to race out in front and manage the game with the rest of the playoffs in mind, there’s a good chance that the Panthers will need to do the opposite.
As 10-point home underdogs and the worst team in this field, Carolina is going to need to be on the front foot to have a chance in this matchup.
That should lead to plenty of targets for McMillan, who looks like a future star after an award-winning debut season.
Another way to land some value is to look at Rams’ running back Kyren Williams to lead the round in rushing yards. If Los Angeles does race ahead, it could lean pretty heavily on Williams to get this game over the line.
Back the Steelers
Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2017, and it’s become en vogue to fade the longest-tenured coach in the NFL at this time of year.
It’s also been a long time since Aaron Rodgers has been to the playoffs (2021), and he hasn’t won a postseason contest since 2020.
All season long, the NFL waited for the Ravens to catch up to the Steelers and nick the AFC North. When the two rivals met in a do-or-die game in Week 18, Baltimore was favored on the road. Pittsburgh won that game and was immediately written off as an also-ran for the playoffs.
Betting on the NFL?
That seemed a bit rash, given that the only thing anybody can agree on in the AFC is that it is wide open to expect the unexpected. That’s a big part of the reason why the red-hot Jaguars have become a trendy pick to make it to the Super Bowl.
Why can’t you make a similar case for the Steelers, who just won what was essentially a playoff game last weekend, at triple the price of the Jags?
Especially since only one other quarterback in the conference (Josh Allen) can even come close to comparing with the playoff experience that Rodgers brings with him.
The likelihood of the Steelers winning the Super Bowl — or even getting there — is remote.
And if you walk down this path, a lot of people will call you crazy, but the strategy doesn’t sound off base when you spell it out simply.
The narrative all season has been that the AFC is up for grabs. Why not bet the battle-tested team with the longest odds in the conference?
The value play(s): Steelers to win the Super Bowl 50/1 (bet365) OR Aaron Rodgers to be named Super Bowl MVP (65/1, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
