When you make a selection on every NFL game each week — for 32 seasons — you occasionally fall back on some principles.
For example, one of those involved Daniel Jones, who the past two games tried to play on a broken leg. It’s a reasonable principle to pick against a guy with a broken leg when the opposing quarterback has two good ones. We went 2-0 in those Colts fades, with Danny Dimes unfortunately going down for the season with a ruptured Achilles last week.
Another principle is in play Sunday at MetLife Stadium when the 2-11 Giants play host to the 3-10 Commanders. The thought here is that you don’t lay points — 2.5 in this case — on a team that’s tied for the worst record in the NFL, has a seven-game losing streak and currently owns the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.
I’m not going to get into the “tank” aspects of this situation. I don’t believe the Giants are doing that. The players certainly aren’t, and interim coach Mike Kafka would love to get the zero off the left side of his record. The Giants are trying — and they’re still the worst team in the NFL, at least by the draft order’s definition.
The Commanders are equally atrocious. They’ve lost eight in a row and are coming off a 31-0 loss at Minnesota in which Jayden Daniels made a failed comeback attempt. But in the two games before that, with Marcus Mariota under center, the Commanders lost by three points to the Dolphins and one to the Broncos, both in overtime.
The traditional offensive and defensive numbers are similar, with the Giants having a slight edge. The Commanders are a bit better in total DVOA, an all-encompassing metric. These are two sinking ships. I can’t lay points in this game — on principle.
The pick: Commanders +2.5.
New York Jets (+13.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
This line sat at Jaguars -4.5 on the lookahead but has steamed nine points on the Tyrod Taylor injury and news that Brady Cook will be making his first start. I’m struggling to see that much of a difference between the two quarterbacks and, if anything, I’m interested to see if Cook can do more with Breece Hall and AD Mitchell than Tyrod did.
It feels as if there’s some value in this massive number on a Jets team that face-planted last week vs. the Dolphins but is still playing hard. The Jaguars have won five of their last six games but two of those were by one point in overtime vs. the Raiders and three points in overtime vs. the Cardinals.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+2.5) over Baltimore Ravens
Sure, sign me up for Joe Burrow with points at home against a team he and the Bengals beat 32-14 two weeks ago in Baltimore. Yes, it’s rapid revenge for the desperate Ravens but Lamar Jackson still doesn’t look quite like his former self. The Bengals have averaged 33 ppg in Burrow’s two games since his return, including a cover last week at Buffalo.
Buffalo Bills (-1) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
While I’m in on Burrow to deal the Ravens more pain, it’s a different call in Foxborough with Josh Allen and the Bills. On Oct. 5, the Patriots went into Orchard Park and knocked off the Bills, 23-20, for the second notch in what is now a 10-game winning streak. The Patriots are coming off a late-season bye and this is the Bills’ eighth game since their week off. Still, it’s a tasty revenge spot for Allen at a time when the AFC’s berth in the Super Bowl is there for the taking.
CHICAGO BEARS (-7.5) over Cleveland Browns
The forecast for Soldier Field at kickoff calls for 11 degrees with a real feel of 5. Some would see this as an invitation to grab the Browns’ No. 2 yardage defense, but I see the conditions favoring a team fighting for a division title over one that’s 3-10.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-5.5) over Los Angeles Chargers
It might already be too late for a last stand for the 6-7 Chiefs but I’m expecting to see the best of whatever this proud dynasty team has left. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense will go after Justin Herbert and his damaged left hand, and the temperature (23 degrees) could be a factor against a SoCal indoor team.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-11.5) over Las Vegas Raiders
Another game where the weather needs to be taken into consideration. It’s forecast to be 29 with morning snow in South Philly. So even though the Eagles’ offense is unworthy of laying such a number, it’s easy to see the Raiders with their 2-11 record and 32nd-ranked scoring offense not even competing here.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-9.5) over Arizona Cardinals
Texans beat up and spit out the Chiefs by 10 last week and now are favored by a bit less than that here at home. Cardinals are 5-1 ATS on the road but this is a three-win team in a wreck of a season that has lost many of its top players to injury. Another big day for Will Anderson Jr. and the NFL’s top defense.
DENVER BRONCOS (+2.5) over Green Bay Packers
The traditional stats (yards gained and allowed, points scored and allowed) are almost identical for these two teams. The Packers rate a slight edge in DVOA (fifth vs. Denver’s eighth). Both teams come in mostly healthy. Going to take the points at home with a Broncos team that has won its last six games decided by three points or fewer.
Detroit Lions (+6) over LOS ANGELES RAMS
This spread’s scary because it’s obliterated on one pass from Matthew Stafford to Puka Nacua. Still, if Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown can turn this into a back-and-forth shootout, that number looms large with the lead changing hands. This one’s a want for the 10-3 Rams and a need for the 8-5 Lions.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+2.5) over Carolina Panthers
It’s been an enigmatic season for the Panthers, who are a surprising 7-6 and have wins over the Rams and Packers, but sit in the bottom five in points scored, have lost to the Saints (in Charlotte, N.C.) and been blown out by the Patriots and Bills. In Tyler Shough’s last four starts, the Saints are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS.
Tennessee Titans (+12.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The 49ers have won three in a row by double digits as they chase the Rams and Seahawks in the NFC West. They’d love another 10-point win but that wouldn’t be enough to cover against the spry Titans, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and have scored 20 or more in three of those.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-13.5) over Indianapolis Colts
Was toying with taking the Colts because this is still a pretty talented team to be getting this bottom-feeder spread. But with it looking more and more as if 44-year-old Phillip Rivers is actually going to start on the road against the No. 2 scoring defense, I’m not seeing how this is going to work, exactly.
Minnesota Vikings (+6) over DALLAS COWBOYS
Dallas has only three wins all season that would have covered this number … and those were against the Jets, Commanders and Raiders. Keep an eye on the injury report for CeeDee Lamb, who was concussed last Thursday. Will take the six to see if J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings figured something out last week in a 31-0 rout of the Commanders.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) over Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins figure to be better in the cold with their run-heavy attack than when they were a high-wire Tyreek Hill passing team, but this might be asking a little much. The forecast for Pittsburgh on Monday night calls for temps in the teens with a real feel of 12 and double-digit winds. Oh, and the Steelers have one of the best frozen tundra QBs in history in Aaron Rodgers.
BEST BETS: Texans, Bills, Vikings.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Texans (Locks 5-9 in 2025).
LAST WEEK: 5-9 overall, 0-3 Best Bets.
THURSDAY: Falcons.
