It’s a little difficult to know where the Giants are right now based on traditional handicapping methods. Those would include using your eyes, intuition, and understanding of the ebbs and flows of an NFL season based on, in my case, 33 years of observing.
The standings say the Giants are in first place in the NFC East at 3-1. Big Blue got to that perch, however, by surviving against the 0-4 Titans and 1-3 Cardinals at MetLife because of interceptions on the final defensive snap.
That would typically be a red flag in handicapping future games or at least raise these questions: Are they winning because John Harbaugh is teaching them how, even without Jaxson Dart on offense and Brian Burns on defense? Or will they be exposed when they play better opposition, the way they were in Week 2 at the Rams? The answers are probably some of both, because this is the NFL.
But let’s look specifically at the road game Sunday against the 1-3 Commanders. Would they count as better opposition? Based on record, no. But they are getting back Jayden Daniels from his elbow injury.
Washington’s offense functioned well for backup Marcus Mariota in an upset home win vs. the defending champion Seahawks, and even had a few decent moments with third-stringer Athan Kaliakmanis in last week’s 30-13 loss to the Colts in London. The Rutgers product burnt Sauce Gardner for a touchdown bomb and the Commanders had another long score taken down on a phantom holding penalty.
Looking at the modern DVOA metrics, both teams place 20th or worse in every category except for Washington ranking seventh in rush defense. Each has the edge in three categories. So that’s of little assistance unless you see it as a reason to take points.
The Commanders have the better quarterback, if healthy. The Giants have the better head coach. Washington had to travel back across the pond. The metrics say it’s pretty even.
All things considered, this lands as an underdog selection for me, with the suspicion that the spread could come into play.
The pick: Giants +4.
NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) over Cleveland Browns
Old-school and new-school handicapping meet for lunch Sunday in East Rutherford. One team comes in off three straight losses — and is getting crushed from all angles after an embarrassing performance. And the other is on a surprise three-game winning streak and could be believing its press clippings. We normally know what to do with this, given again that this is the NFL.
Some are curious about the Jets being favored, but that likely comes from the DVOA comparison. The Jets are top four in the NFL in the three defensive metrics (even after facing the Lions and Bears), and top 14 in the offensive ones. The Browns rank 18th or worse in all of them.
With Aaron Glenn coaching for his job, I figure this week will be the best version of the Jets, whatever that is.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) over Philadelphia Eagles
Never thought we’d be talking about laying more than a touchdown to the Eagles, but that’s where we are, given the injuries to Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith, and the hit to the offensive line with Lane Johnson’s retirement and the trade of center Cam Jurgens to Baltimore. The Jaguars also have vast experience with the London trip and are capable of blowing out an opponent that’s not all there.
Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Raiders won last season’s opener in Foxborough in a season when they ended up with the No. 1 overall pick and the Patriots went to the Super Bowl. Can they do it again, or at least cover as underdogs? They are 4-0 ATS this season. Will Drake Maye be great or terrible? The Raiders have one of the league’s better pass defenses, so we’ll take the points to find out.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (+6.5) over Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals own clear statistical edges everywhere you look, but those were built with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and both could miss this game. Though it’s a clear risk to back the winless Dolphins without De’Von Achane, the 90-degree Miami weather with a chance of thunderstorms could help a little.
TENNESSEE TITANS (+7.5) over Houston Texans
Welcome to the 0-4 Bowl. There are some differences in that record. The Titans are 2-2 against the spread and are an average minus-2.1 points to the number per Sharp Football Analysis. The Texans are 0-4 ATS by an average of 7.8 points. With a spread this large, hoping Brian Daboll can figure something out with Cam Ward.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-2.5) over Indianapolis Colts
Last week’s 30-13 Colts win in London might be a little deceiving. They were down 6-0 when Marcus Mariota got hurt and gave up a couple of long passes to the third-string QB, one of which was controversially called back. Looking for Aaron Rodgers to attack the same spots and hoping the Steelers defense can contain Jonathan Taylor.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Saints are on a short week after getting steamrolled by the Falcons offense. This week brings the opposite problem as young QB Tyler Shough will have to deal with Brian Flores’ diabolical blitzes. Justin Jefferson missed last week with an ankle injury but is trending toward getting back on the field in his home state.
Chicago Bears (-1.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS
I’m all in on Ben Johnson. He openly hates the Packers, and I figure he’s got a special game plan ready specifically for them, even with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. Green Bay’s had two blowout losses and three-point wins over the 1-3 Jets and 0-4 Bucs. They’re not on the Bears’ level right now.
Denver Broncos (-3.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The Chargers will be without OTs Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. To the extent that Justin Herbert will have time to even get a pass off, he also might be missing top WR Ladd McConkey. Broncos are 2-2 mainly because they’re averaging 3.3 points in the first half. Sean Payton calling offensive plays might help fix that.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+5.5) over Detroit Lions
I’m taking the points here at home with the Cardinals, who are strong against the run and also have a few interesting pieces on offense with Jeremiyah Love and Trey McBride. If you’re leaning Lions, know that they are 13-4-1 ATS as favorites off a loss under Dan Campbell, per killersports.com.
San Francisco 49ers (+3) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Seattle’s usual 12th Man advantage hasn’t worked great against the 49ers. San Francisco has won its past four regular-season visits. Yes, that streak ended in a horrific 40-6 loss in the playoffs last year, but the Seahawks were on an unstoppable roll then. Let’s take the points with Christian McCaffrey and an undefeated, unafraid team.
Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS
This spread flipped on the injury absence of Lamar Jackson. In one of the rare NFL setups of recent times, Tyler Huntley has been filling in capably for Jackson’s absences since 2021. The Ravens have other injuries at receiver and on the O-line, and Bijan Robinson and the Falcons are coming in hot, but I’ve never trusted them as favorites.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3.5) over Buffalo Bills
One of the Games of the Year in the NFL, a fascinating matchup. Though the Bills are my Super Bowl choice, this is a tall order for them because they haven’t been stopping the run. If Kyren Williams gets loose, that will set up all sorts of torture from Matthew Stafford, Davante Adams, and Puka Nacua.
Best bets: Titans, Dolphins, 49ers.
Lock of the week: Titans (Locks 3-1 in 2026).
Last week: 8-7-1 overall, 3-0 Best Bets.
Thursday: Cowboys (L).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back to 1994. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.
