Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are taking NBA MVP race down to the wire

Just keep watching this MVP race until the end.

Please?!

For the love of the Michael Jordan trophy (yes, that’s what the NBA calls it now), set your clocks and calendars to every game Nikola Jokić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander play until the regular season ends. Feel free to put Giannis Antetokounmpo in this special group too — even if the Milwaukee Bucks star (who is also doing historic things) is widely considered to be unofficially out of the running for the top spot. But for this program, we’ll focus on the two players who are way out in front.

Whether you’re an actual voter or a fan who has felt compelled to choose an early winner because that’s the binary nature of this media discussion, resist that urge to pick one player over the other before you need to and absorb this final month of historic action even more as a result. Keep your focus sharp, your senses open and enjoy as full and unfiltered an appreciation of their play as humanly possible.

Would you walk out of the theater near the end of an all-time great movie? Didn’t think so. That logic needs to be applied here too.

This is an MVP race for the ages, with so much greatness on display that you almost wish no one had to lose, and it should be savored as such. Coming to an early conclusion invites premature closure on the experience, and there’s no sense in that.

Assuming you’ll do as you’re told, consider this your CliffsNotes for the final stretch.

Nikola Jokić

Remaining schedule: 13 games (15.8 percent of the season)

We’re starting with the “Joker” because he was supposed to be the main attraction Monday against the Golden State Warriors and, thus, is top of mind for yours truly. Sadly for those of us who attended the game, and for those who tuned in, the Nuggets rested Jokić because of shoulder and elbow problems, and that showdown was not to be. (Denver, which is constantly criticized for having a lack of depth, somehow managed to beat the Warriors without Jokić, Jamal Murray and Christian Braun.)

If ESPN’s latest straw poll is any indication — and it typically is — Jokić is trailing SGA in this race. In the interest of full disclosure, I voted SGA, Jokić, Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum and Karl-Anthony Towns in said poll. So, as The Denver Post asked Kevin Durant recently, does that mean Jokić is the “underdog” here?

“You know he’s not an under— stop it,” the Phoenix Suns star and former MVP said. “I’m not gonna let y’all keep doing that, man. Jokić never is an underdog in any situation, man. Stop.

“I’m just saying (Jokić) is not an underdog,” Durant continued. “I don’t know who it should be. Both of them are playing great ball, but (Jokić) can never be an underdog again. That s— is out the window (after) his first MVP.”

Fair enough, KD.

Yet regardless of where Durant or anyone else thinks Jokić belongs here, one can’t properly assess his production — or any of the others, for that matter — without taking the historical context into account.

Historical context

By averaging 29.1 points (third in the league), 12.8 rebounds (third) and 10.3 assists (second), Jokić is, per Stathead.com, on track to join Oscar Robertson as the only players to hit those 29-12-10 marks. That 1961-62 campaign for “The Big O” was long considered the gold standard for individual brilliance, but it should be noted Jokić’s efficiency (65.9 true shooting percentage) far exceeds Robertson’s from that season (55.4).

If you pull back that historical lens further, it becomes even more evident that Jokić’s incredible hit rate, so to speak, is what sets his season apart. Of the 12 times when a player has averaged at least 28 points, eight rebounds and eight assists, none has shot it nearly as well as Jokić’s 65.9 true shooting mark (Luka Dončić’s 61.7 last season is the current high).

Quotables

Jokić said last week that he has never played better than this. That’s quite a statement for someone who not only has three MVPs, one championship and six All-NBA appearances (including four First Team), but who was 28th on The Athletic’s “The Basketball 100″ list.

To no one’s surprise, Nuggets coach Michael Malone has taken every opportunity to campaign for his franchise centerpiece. And while he has been very complimentary of Gilgeous-Alexander along the way, he recently pushed back against the notion that the player whose team has the best record should have an edge (the Thunder have the second-best record in the league, and best in the Western Conference, at 56-12; the Nuggets are tied for second in the West at 44-25; the Bucks are tied for fourth in the East at 38-29). More specifically, Malone highlighted the fact that Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid won MVP over Jokić in 2023 when the Nuggets had the best record in the West and the Sixers were third in the East. (He failed to mention, however, that Embiid’s squad had the better record by a game.)

Before Monday’s game against the Warriors, I asked Malone if he agreed with Jokić’s assessment that this has been his finest season yet.

“Yeah. I mean, not only because he has said that, and obviously he’s probably his own toughest critic, but the numbers say it,” said Malone, who has coached Jokić for the entirety of his 10-year career. “I mean, he’s on pace to do things that no one’s ever done. You know, for the last couple of years, we keep on hearing, ‘First guy since Wilt Chamberlain.’ Like, he’s in that category.

“Then this year, he’s doing things that no one’s ever done. … He had a 30-20-20 game (in a win over Phoenix on March 7) — no one’s ever done that. He’s on pace to average a triple-double. Only two other guys have ever done that (Robertson and Jokić’s teammate, Russell Westbrook). So I think he’s definitely playing the best basketball of a very brilliant and impressive career.”

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Remaining schedule: 14 games (17.1 percent of the season)

If Gilgeous-Alexander wins, you’ll hear zero complaints from this critic’s corner. And thankfully, I don’t have to decide just yet if that last straw poll vote will be the final decision. Again, now is the time to let these guys cook and worry about the award later.

Regardless of the finish, Gilgeous-Alexander’s campaign has been remarkable by every conceivable measure. Historic production, elite two-way play on a team that has the league’s leading defense (by a long shot) and a special leadership style that has catapulted the young Thunder into title contention. Vibes matter so much in this league, and the 26-year-old SGA has a unique way of elevating and inspiring those around him. That trait can’t be found in the numbers, but it most certainly plays a massive part in that record. Speaking of which…

The Thunder might well finish with the league’s best mark, as they’re only a half-game back of the Cleveland Cavaliers entering Tuesday. It’s interesting, though, how that doesn’t seem to matter to MVP voters nearly as much as it used to. In the last 20 years, only 11 MVPs came from the team with the best record (the last four — three for Jokić and the one for Embiid — came from teams that were second [Nuggets, 2024], third [Sixers, 2023], 10th [Nuggets, 2022] and fifth [Nuggets, 2021] in the league).

Historical context

In terms of production, style and impact, Gilgeous-Alexander is a modern-day Jordan. And if you think that’s sacrilege, you’re simply not paying attention to the nightly dominance on display. To wit…

By averaging 33 points (first in the league), 6.2 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 1.8 steals and one block, he’s on track to do something that has never been done. If you focus on the points, rebounds and assists (33, six and five), then you see that it has only been done six times before (Jordan, James Harden and Dončić all did it twice).

Don’t stop there, though. You have to look deeper to understand how dynamic Gilgeous-Alexander has been.

He is averaging just 34.4 minutes per game — by far the lowest of the 33-6-5 club mentioned above — which means it’s worth taking a peek at his per 100 possessions numbers and comparing them to Jordan’s from his 33-6-5 seasons to level the playing field. For the record, Jordan didn’t win any of his six MVPs in these particular seasons.

Here’s how that looks, per Basketball-Reference.com…

• Gilgeous-Alexander: 46.2 points, 8.7 assists, 7.1 rebounds, 2.5 steals, 1.5 blocks and a true-shooting mark of 64.5 percent.
• Jordan (1988-89): 40 points, 9.9 rebounds, 9.9 assists, 3.6 steals, one block and a 61.4 true shooting mark.
• Jordan (1989-90): 42.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, 8.1 assists, 3.5 steals, 0.8 blocks and a 60.6 true shooting mark.

Quotables

When Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards deemed Gilgeous-Alexander the MVP in early January, the high praise prompted one of the few moments in which the Thunder star shared his view of the race.

“It’s a really good feeling,” Gilgeous-Alexander said of Edwards’ praise. “No offense to you guys in the media, but the best satisfaction is when your peers and the guys who do the same thing for a living at a very high level … recognize and respect your craft and talent. That’s a really good feeling. Obviously, the caliber of player he is, the sky is the limit. … It feels really good.”

Beyond those niceties, there hasn’t been much campaigning from SGA on the matter. And as Thunder coach Mark Daigneault explained recently, that’s a very intentional choice.

“I’m more focused on our team, and that’s a directive from Shai,” Daigneault told reporters. “Shai wants to focus on team success. All the interactions I have with him are about the team. I am very impressed with Shai’s ability to compartmentalize that. Obviously, he would be honored to win the MVP, but when he steps in between the lines with our team, he is only focused on our team. And I think our team success has reflected that for two years.”

As Daigneault accurately pointed out, there’s one winner here that will remain regardless of what comes next: the NBA.

“The fact that there’s a national narrative around those two players — those are two great ambassadors for the game,” Daigneault continued. “Jokić is a great guy. He’s a great team guy. Shai, obviously, I can’t say enough about as a person and a team guy.

“So I think it reflects well for the NBA that those two guys, in this season, are the guys that everyone’s talking about.”

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(Photo of Nikola Jokić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)