A new survey from the Badger State bodes well for Republicans’ hope of flipping the US Senate.
A bipartisan pair of pollsters known for surveys for Donald Trump and Joe Biden — the GOP Fabrizio Ward shop and the Democratic Impact Research — conducted the poll, commissioned by the American Association of Retired Persons.
And it has good news for Eric Hovde, the candidate seeking to unseat longtime Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, especially on arguably the highest-propensity voters in any election: those over 50 years of age.
Baldwin, who hasn’t lost a general in nearly four decades in politics, is running marginally behind Hovde with older voters, trailing 49% to 50% The momentum is especially pronounced with those voters between 50 and 64, with whom Hovde leads 55% to 44%.
The same gender gap seen across the map this cycle applies here also, with Hovde up 52% to 46% with men over 50, while Baldwin leads 54% to 45% with older women. Overall, Hovde has a 7-point lead with men, while Baldwin is up 13 with women.
Baldwin also leads with a pair of 50+ subgroups, but one of them may be ripe for a flip.
Among caregivers, she’s up 52% to 45%. And among swing voters, she leads 47% to 45%, but with the caveat that the other 8% are undecided. If Hovde can make inroads with this group, he could score a major upset on Election Day.
Beyond the GOP candidate’s strength with older voters, there is more reason for optimism in these data for Hovde. He has more room to grow with Republicans than Baldwin does with Democrats.
Whereas Baldwin already has 99% support in her own party, Hovde has 93% backing among Republicans.
Finding a way to move the 6% backing Baldwin is key to his hopes, as is closing the gap with independents.
Among those unaligned voters, Baldwin leads 52% to 43%.
Wisconsin is leaning Democratic in the Senate race per 270toWin, though this survey has yet to be reflected in its calculus. The RealClearPolitics average shows Baldwin with a 5-point lead overall, with leads ranging in individual surveys from 1 point to 8 points.
The narrowing Senate race reflects the action at the top of the ticket, which shows Donald Trump within 1 point of Kamala Harris head to head (49% to 48%) in the race for Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes.
When choices include Robert Kennedy Jr. and Jill Stein, Harris leads 48% to 45%, suggesting the marginal candidates hurt Trump more than they do the veep.
