Older white voters — who tend to get out on Election Day — power Trump’s lead in North Carolina: poll

In the battleground state of North Carolina, Donald Trump narrowly leads Kamala Harris in a new poll. 

But his lead is driven by demographic strength among one group of high-propensity voters that could prove potent in the race for 16 electoral votes.

In an American Association of Retired Persons survey conducted by the GOP-leaning Fabrizio Ward and the Democratic Impact Research shop between Sept. 11 and 17 during the week after the presidential debate, 50% of likely voters favor the former president, with 47% backing the vice president.

While this suggests an even race, the battle between Harris and Trump in North Carolina is actually characterized by sharp demographic divides that will inform the topography of the race, particularly between black and white voters aged 50 and up.

When it comes to older black voters, Harris has her best showing among any group polled. A full 92% back her, with 4% supporting Trump.

But older white voters are falling in behind Trump, though not in quite that dramatic a proportion. He has 66% support among them, with just 30% backing Harris. 

The divides among older voters are more dramatic than the overall racial split between Trump and Harris. The former prez leads 60% to 35% with white voters of all ages, while Harris is up 84% to 10% with black voters.

White voters outnumber black voters in the Tar Heel State, and because of this Trump is up over Harris overall with the 50+ set, 52% to 43%. He’s up by 9 points with caretakers over the age of 50 and 18 points with self-described swing voters of that relatively advanced age. 

Even among voters between 35 and 49 years of age, Harris and Trump are effectively tied, with Trump +2 in a head to head and Harris up a point in an expanded field.

Harris is perceived to have won the presidential debate by nearly every group polled — except for white voters over 50, who rate it essentially a dead heat, and Republicans, who think Trump won. But consistent with other polls, a strong debate performance isn’t translating into momentum. 

This poll offers some more familiar insights, meanwhile, including a reminder Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson likely can’t win. The survey was wrapped before salacious reporting of his personal scandals, but he was still down 52% to 42% to Democrat Josh Stein. 

Whereas Trump leads by 3 with independents, Robinson trails by 17, showing the gap between the two candidates.