In its 100th season, Texas Tech finds itself on the sport’s biggest stage, playing what is easily the most important game in program history.
And it’s not just the situation that makes this a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the Red Raiders; it’s the fact that they have legitimately been one of the best teams in the country all season.
Texas Tech’s statistical profile is elite. It passed several difficult tests during the regular season, beating Utah on the road and BYU twice. The Red Raiders are well coached, and they have a terrific quarterback in Behren Morton. The defense, which has always been the main cause of sleeplessness in Lubbock, is ranked as the second-best unit in the country by SP+, trailing only Ohio State.
If that’s the case, then why is Texas Tech a slight underdog against Oregon on a neutral field in their College Football Playoff quarterfinal on Thursday?
This is a question that bettors have been asking themselves all season.
Just like in other facets of life, it takes a long time for the betting market to shift its perception of college football programs. Texas Tech may have a stronger portfolio than Oregon this season, but it’s hard for punters to come to grips with that.
Oregon has been one of the most consistent programs in the sport for a decade. Texas Tech has always come up short.
Betting on College Football?
Whether you want to admit it or not, those preconceived biases impact the way we bet, and that has a ripple effect on the market.
A simple exercise to suss out these biases is to compare each side’s statistical profile, but cover up the name of each team. When you compare Oregon to Texas Tech, you’d notice that the Red Raiders boast the better metrics on both sides of the ball, and yet they are the underdog in this matchup.
Seems like the wrong team is favored in this tilt.
The Play: Texas Tech moneyline (+115, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
