One Battle or Hamnet? Leo or Timothée? Jessie or Renate? And who’s going to play spoiler?
That’s what we obsess about it at Gold Derby. Now that we’ve made it through the festivals and the subsequent onslaught of screenings, reviews, box-office debuts (and, alas, box-office disappointments), it’s about time for the voters to finally weigh in. With those announcements just two weeks away, here’s what the Gold Derby editors are predicting for the top races.
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Debra’s picks: Best Picture
It’s not just about what I personally want to see nominated — though of course I have my favorites — but what I’m hearing from voters at all of the events I’m attending. Whether I’m moderating or mingling, I’m listening to what they’re chattering about. It always comes down to a few simple truths: Campaigning counts, it’s about films and performances that win over their hearts, and what they’re thinking about when the credits roll. And all together now: Critics are not voters.
So given what I’ve seen and heard, right now, Hamnet and One Battle After Another are jockeying for the No. 1 slot, but there’s plenty of time to determine who’ll ultimately claim the crown. In the box-office champs column, Ryan Coogler‘s Sinners was a creative and financial triumph, and despite critics’ less-than-wonderful reviews, it will be hard for voters to ignore Wicked: For Good‘s gravity-defying box office. The international feature race is stacked this year: I’m giving the edge to Sentimental Value and It Was Just An Accident as the two most likely to crack the top 10, but I’m keeping an eye on No Other Choice. With 25 percent of the Academy now overseas, those members will have a lot to say about which films break through.
Frankenstein is surging thanks to that famed Guillermo del Toro charm campaign; odds are that magic will also work for Clooney & co. for Jay Kelly, which should appeal to Academy voters who can’t resist films about themselves. And don’t count out Train Dreams, the little engine that could (and should).
To be fair: I haven’t seen Avatar: Fire & Ash yet, which seems to be holding a spot across many lists just on name recognition alone. I’ll revisit once it’s screened for critics after the holiday.
So who can play spoiler? It’s a question of how many: How many box-office blockbusters, how many international features, and how many can any one studio — be it Warner Bros., Focus, or Netflix — support in the race. Champagne problems, I know.
Marcus’ picks: Best Director
I call ‘em like I see ‘em… and, just between us, I haven’t seen everything on the must-watch list yet. Consider this very much a work in progress, hence nary a Trier nor Panahi on my Best Director slate. Oh, you should also know going in that I’m an unapologetic fan of popcorn movies and not afraid to champion a worthy crowd-pleaser.
Caveats aside, my top two are no-brainers and, on another day, could flop spots: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler for Sinners — singular filmmakers who injected a needed adrenaline jolt into both the cinematic landscape and the culture at large. Give me Leo in PJs and a gun-toting Teyana! I want all the blues-grooving, Riverdancing vampires! At a recent guild screening, an entire row of voters behind me was debating which was going to claim Best Picture as if it were a foregone two-film contest. I’m not ready to call it, but fortunately Phase 1 is all about narrowing the field, and I’ll bank on both PTA and Coogler making the cut.
My other lead-pipe lock is Chloé Zhao, whose Hamnet is a haunting art-house piece that will leave a psychic mark. Just ask Spielberg.
These last two slots are heart over head at the moment. As the resident Frankenstein fanboy, I endorse Guillermo del Toro for helming an epic creature feature that pushed all my daddy buttons. Likewise, Train Dreams completely snuck up on me and remains something I can’t shake weeks after watching. Bravo to you, Clint Bentley. I’ve penciled him in my fifth slot, a lumberjack’s whisker ahead of Yorgos and his riveting, chilling, thrilling Bugonia.
— Also in my mix: Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia; Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice; RIan Johnson, Wake Up Dead Man; Zach Cregger, Weapons
— Unscreened lurkers: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value; Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident; Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme; James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Ethan’s picks: Best Actor
I was in the room where the start of Timothée Chalamet‘s latest Oscar campaign happened. Flying in from the set of Dune: Part Three to hard launch Marty Supreme at the New York Film Festival, the Wonka thespian had the hometown crowd cheering even before the movie screened. Those positive vibes carried over into the two-and-a-half-hour film as that all-important first audience were galvanized by Chalamet’s all-in star turn. I’m still not entirely sold on Marty Supreme‘s chances as an across-the-board contender, but its leading man is making all the right moves onscreen and off — those marketing stunts are, for now at least, delighting people instead of annoying them — as he cements his frontrunner status.
Leonardo DiCaprio — who famously offered Chalamet some fatherly words of career wisdom a few years back — is deservedly winning acclaim for his seriocomic performance as the ultimate stoner dad in Paul Thomas Anderson‘s One Battle After Another. He’s a shoo-in for a nomination, as is Michael B. Jordan, who stars opposite himself in Sinners, which in many ways feels like the culmination of his fruitful collaboration with Fruitvale Station auteur Ryan Coogler. Meanwhile, the love surrounding Train Dreams — aka Netflix’s little movie that could — positions Joel Edgerton as a serious dark-horse contender. Both the streamer’s head of film, Dan Lin, and co-head Ted Sarandos have been vocal about their love the film and it’s nothing if not a memorable showcase for the much-respected Australian actor.
Speaking of showcases, Ethan Hawke holds court at the center of Richard Linklater‘s Blue Moon in a performance that’s unlike any he’s given before. Linklater told me that one of his chief goals with the film was pushing Hawke outside of his comfort zone, and that’s resulted in a very real surge for the actor as the No. 5 spot has gone up for grabs as formerly formidable contenders like Jeremy Allen White and Dwayne Johnson have seen their fortunes fluctuate. Hawke is far from a lock — but he’s where he wants to be at this point in the race.
Mia’s picks: Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actress may be the most exciting race this year precisely because there are no sure bets. At this point, the category feels like fertile ground for a genuine shake-up. Ariana Grande looks as close to a likely nominee as the category has. Her turn as Glinda in Wicked: For Good has been singled out even by critics who were cooler on the film overall. Voters may also subconsciously connect this performance to the groundwork she laid in the first installment. Add the film’s massive box-office footprint, and the general cultural heat around the property, and Grande feels like a solid contender.
Teyana Taylor gives a raw, emotionally unguarded performance in One Battle After Another and has been at the top of the Gold Derby predictions chart since the Paul Thomas Anderson began screening. The one potential obstacle is her limited screen time in the second half; she effectively disappears, and in a competitive year, that could matter. With Jessie Buckley emerging as the strongest Best Actress contender for Hamnet, Emily Watson’s supporting turn in Chloé Zhao’s film won’t be overlooked. Watson’s the kind of respected veteran who could surge once the film is more widely seen. Mia Goth, on the other hand, brings a very different energy to the race with her mesmerizing performance in Frankenstein. She also takes on a second role — Viktor’s mother — disappearing so fully into the part that many viewers didn’t realize they were watching the same actor. That level of transformative craft tends to play well with actors branch voters.
Then there’s Amy Madigan, whose work in Weapons is both surprising and quietly unsettling. The Academy has a history of honoring veteran performers who deliver standout work in otherwise challenging films. Finally, watch the Sentimental Value of Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning. Their film has been holding a strong position in the race since its debut at Telluride. If voters can’t decide between the two, there’s always a fear they will split the vote, but given the wave of overall film enthusiasm it seems at least one of them could secure a nomination.
MJD’s picks: Best Actress
Yes, Jessie Buckley is locked-in for a nomination for Hamnet. In fact, she’s probably winning for bringing audiences to tears as the wife of Paul Mescal‘s William Shakespeare — but that’s a story for another day. That leaves us with four slots to fill in Best Actress, and there are easily a half-dozen leading ladies gunning for them.
Amanda Seyfried is a latecomer to the race, as The Testament of Ann Lee only got a distributor in recent months, but I can’t imagine a Best Actress field in which she doesn’t appear. Seyfried is receiving some of the best reviews of her career for her ferocious and visceral portrayal of the founder of the Shakers, an 18th century religious sect.
I have breakout star Chase Infiniti in third place because of the way One Battle After Another will no doubt dominate the Oscar nominations. The savvy campaign strategy to bump her up to lead — arguably a weaker category this year than supporting — should help Infiniti’s chances. Fun fact: if the film’s entire six-person ensemble gets in, that’d be a new Academy Award record, and who doesn’t love witnessing history?
Cynthia Erivo should easily reap back-to-back Best Actress noms, this time for Wicked: For Good, the high-flying sequel to 2024’s most magical movie. Only six performers have even been nominated at the Oscars for playing the same character in two different films, and Erivo (as Elphaba) and her costar Ariana Grande (as Glinda) are now looking to become the seventh and eighth performers to join that list.
My last slot goes to Renate Reinsve, the Norwegian star who’s really out there campaigning for Sentimental Value, despite the fact that English isn’t her first language. She portrays Nora Borg, an acclaimed actress whose estranged father is making a film about her life. Mark these words: by the end of awards season, everyone will know how to properly pronounce the name Renate Reinsve.
Denton’s picks: Best International Feature
The Best International Feature race is as competitive as ever, with far more contenders than there are Oscar slots. Since Parasite’s historic Best Picture win in 2020, the Academy has consistently embraced global cinema, nominating at least one non-English film for Best Picture every year. That momentum continues, but nothing feels locked — even among this year’s five clear front-runners.
Norway’s Sentimental Value is Joachim Trier’s most accessible film yet, a genuine crowd-pleaser anchored by Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — all in the hunt for acting nominations. France counters with Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident, arriving with the heat of its Palme d’Or win. It may not factor into the acting races, but Panahi’s legacy — and the global support for his defiance of Iran’s film bans — gives it undeniable Academy appeal.
South Korea submits Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice, a dark comedy with unnerving real-world urgency. After his shocking snub for Decision to Leave, many voters see Park as overdue for recognition. Brazil, fresh off last year’s win for I’m Still Here, fields Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent, a political thriller powered by Wagner Moura’s career-best work — and likely Best Actor nomination.
The year’s biggest wild card is Tunisia’s The Voice of Hind Rajab, Kaouther Ben Hania’s harrowing thriller built around real audio of a 6-year-old girl trapped under IDF fire in Gaza. It hasn’t broken out in other categories, but screenings have been met with stunned silence. Its emotional force — all contained within a single room — could push it into the final five.
Potential spoilers:
— Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan), directed by Shih-Ching Tsou and edited by Sean Baker, who swept four Oscars last year for Anora.
— The Tale of Silyan (North Macedonia), Tamara Kotevska’s visually breathtaking documentary about a farmer and the wounded stork he rehabs — one of the year’s most quietly moving films and a personal favorite.
Kevin’s picks: Best Supporting Actor
Like pretty much everyone else, I was completely bowled over by One Battle After Another and understood as soon as it ended that the hierarchy of power in the awards race was about to change. With an ensemble as strong as Paul Thomas Anderson‘s, the question because not if there would be acting nominations, but how many.
Two-time Best Actor Sean Penn as the walking embodiment of male ego and insecurity circa 2025 is an automatic nomination. (When a character’s gait becomes instantly iconic, we’re talking about serious cultural impact.) Then there’s the lovable, cool, and competent Sensei Sergio St. Carlos, played by previous Supporting Actor winner Benicio Del Toro, doing what he does better than anyone else. By the time he utters, “A few small beers,” I was convinced that he would get in as the category’s second One Battle entry.
What’s left of the category will likely go to Sentimental Value‘s Stellan Skarsgård, rewarding a career of phenomenal work, and Paul Mescal in Hamnet, playing the slightly smaller second fiddle to the powerhouse that is Jessie Buckley. The biggest question that remains for me is whether Frankenstein‘s monster Jacob Elordi snatches the fifth spot away from the overdue Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly, but I think the Sandman’s got it.
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