A critical AFC showdown caps off today’s slate of games as the Baltimore Ravens’ playoff pursuit continues at home against the New England Patriots on “Sunday Night Football.”
The Ravens’ (7-7) defense pitched a shutout over the Bengals in Week 15, and Lamar Jackson tossed a pair of touchdown passes, resulting in a 24-0 win.
Mike Vrabel and the Patriots (11-3) held a 24-7 halftime lead over Buffalo at home. However, they left the backdoor open ajar, and the Bills rallied, scoring 28 second-half points to secure a stunning 35-31 victory.
Oddsmakers are wary of the Patriots’ collapse, as the Ravens enter three-point favorites at home in this primetime clash.
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Week 15 was forgettable for Drake Maye and the Patriots, as their 10-game winning streak was snapped, and their hopes of clinching their first division title since 2019 were put on hold.
It was simply a tale of two halves.
Maye scrambled for two rushing touchdowns, TreVeyon Henderson broke free for a pair of highlight-worthy 52-yard and 65-yard touchdown runs, but New England’s defense couldn’t stop traffic in quarters three and four.
Despite running in two scores, Maye was sacked three times, did not record a passing touchdown, and threw his seventh interception of the season. He had just 155 passing yards, a season-low, and outside of Mack Hollins, no other Patriots receiver made a considerable impact.
If the Patriots want to keep their 7-0 road record unblemished, they’ll need more from pass-catchers Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry.
Escaping the pocket is a strength for Maye, but the Ravens’ defense does a respectable job against quarterbacks, limiting opposing signal-callers to just 3.4 yards per carry.
After ranking in the bottom three in points allowed for most of the season, the return of Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, and Marlon Humphrey has improved the Ravens’ opponent points per game mark to a respectable 22.9.
Baltimore’s offense is also beginning to show glimpses of its old self.
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Derrick Henry faces his former coach and a spiraling Patriots run defense that has allowed 133.8 yards over its past three games. The workhorse back recorded his fifth outing of 100-plus yards rushing in Week 15 against the Bengals.
That’s bad news for a New England rush coverage that was slashed by James Cook and his three-touchdown, 107-yard performance. Since Week 10, Vrabel’s group has dropped from third to 29th in rush EPA.
Jackson is becoming mobile again after some injury issues. The two-time MVP has recorded 25 rushing yards or more in his last three games under center. Zay Flowers is closing in on 1,000 yards receiving, while Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely split tight end reps, each getting weekly chances to score with red zone targets.
I expect a fast start for both teams, with the Patriots hungry to erase last week’s letdown to Buffalo and Baltimore poised after shutting down Joe Burrow on the road.
Target a first quarter over of 9.5 points combined, New England averages 6.7 first quarter points per game, a total that is second-best in the NFL behind the Los Angeles Rams.
The Ravens will also unleash Henry at all costs to test the Pats’ run coverage, creating some early scoring opportunities. They need to win out and hope for a few Steelers’ losses in the interim for an AFC playoff berth.
The Plays: Total 1st Quarter Points 9.5 Over (-120, DraftKings) + Derrick Henry to record 75 rushing yards or more (-165, BetMGM)
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