Polling ‘Nostradamus’ Calls US Election for Kamala Harris

Historian Allan Lichtman has officially predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 race for the White House.

Lichtman became known as the “Nostradamus” of U.S. elections for his impressive track record forecasting the outcomes of presidential races for over 40 years using his prediction model, “The Keys to the White House.” He was one of the few pundits to correctly call the 2016 election for former President Donald Trump and predicted a victory for President Joe Biden in 2020. He now forecasts Harris will be the next president.

“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” Lichtman said in a video for the New York Times.

“At least, that’s my prediction for this race,” he added.

Lichtman’s prediction model, “The Keys to the White House,” hinges on 13 keys. They evaluate the standing of the incumbent party based on areas such as the economy, foreign policy, and domestic politics, such as social unrest, major scandals, and the presence of a third-party candidate.

If six or more of the 13 keys—all true/false statements—are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or fewer be false, it is expected to win.

The professor said the keys were in Democratic Party’s favor, in part due to the lack of a strong third-party candidate, the U.S. economy not being in recession, key acts of the Biden administration such as the Inflation Reduction Act, and absence of sustained social unrest.

In the New York Times video, Lichtman said three keys were definitively false, and whilst two “could flip” false, there would be only five negative keys, “which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”

Speaking with Newsweek after the initial publication of his prediction by the New York Times, Lichtman said the foreign policy keys were “so hard to call.”

“You’re dealing with two wars—two uncertain wars that are very fluid—which makes those two keys extremely difficult to call,” he said.

“Even if they both flipped against the democrats, there still would not be enough [false] keys to predict their defeat,” Lichtman added.

“And frankly, I think the most reasonable construction of the foreign policy keys, which does reflect the record of the Biden administration, is that they would be split.”

The 13 keys, as set out by the historian in a 2012 article for the Social Education journal, are:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

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Update, 09/05/2024, 12:08 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Allan Lichtman.