The pollster behind the infamous Iowa poll that had Kamala Harris up by 3 points in the final days before the election—Donald Trump ultimately won the state by 13 points—will no longer be conducting the poll, though her decision has nothing to do with the 2024 misfire. “Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” writes J. Ann Selzer at the Des Moines Register, for which she has conducted the Iowa Poll on a contract basis since 1997. As Politico explains, the poll “has taken on a near-mythical status” since 2004, when it was the only survey to accurately predict the order the Democratic presidential candidates finished in the state’s caucuses.
“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite,” writes Selzer, who, per the Guardian, was known as the “Queen of Polling” after rocketing to fame with a 2008 poll predicting Barack Obama, then largely unknown, would best Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucuses. Selzer points to her three decades of polling accuracy, noting, “Maybe that history of accuracy made the outlier position too comfortable.” Meanwhile, the Register has published the detailed analysis and review Selzer and others carried out in an effort to determine where this year’s poll went wrong. The short answer? It’s not clear. For the longer answer, see the Register. (More Iowa stories.)
