Are you ready for the 2025 hurricane season?
Me neither. But it’s coming and predictions as of this writing are for an above-normal season. When you consider an “average” season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, well, I guess the best thing we can say is to make things “easier” on yourself and prepare now.
On Thursday, May 15, the National Hurricane Center will begin issuing daily “tropical outlooks,” highlighting areas showing potential for tropical development over the next seven days.
As happened in March, an outlook will be issued ahead of May 15 if forecasters think something may develop earlier.
Look for daily stories from USA Today Network-Florida on conditions in the tropics using those advisories, along with forecasts from other hurricane experts, including AccuWeather, Florida meteorologist Dr. Ryan Truchelut and Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University.
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As forecasters like to say, “It only takes one” to make the season real if you’re the one hit by a storm. And if not, think about working your way through those hurricane supplies over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Note to self: Find recipes that use the most of uneaten food in my emergency kit.
AccuWeather predicted May 6 there’s already a (low) possibility the season’s first tropical storm could form before the official start of hurricane season June 1.
Tight on time? Here’s what you need to know
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Hurricane season starts June 1.
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The National Hurricane Center will issue daily tropical outlooks May 15.
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An exception to that date is if forecasters spot an area showing potential for tropical development earlier than May 15.
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Tropical outlooks highlight areas showing potential for tropical development over the next two to seven days.
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The areas are colored yellow, for low probability for development; orange for a medium chance; and red for a high chance for tropical development.
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Odds of Florida being impacted by a named storm in 2025: 92%.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. NOAA changed its naming convention for the Gulf of Mexico after the U.S. Geological Survey changed the name on U.S. maps per President Trump’s order.
What is a tropical outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center?
Tropical outlooks are issued by the National Hurricane Center starting May 15 and ending Nov. 30.
A map highlights “significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next seven days,” said Larry Kelly, hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, in an email.
Contained in the outlook are the probabilities the area could develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours and seven days:
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A low probability of development ranges from 0-30%
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A medium probability of development ranges from 40-60%
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A high probability of development ranges from 70-100%
“The hatched areas on the graphic represent the potential formation area during the forecast period. It is important to note that it is not a forecast track and just a formation area,” Kelly said.
What do the colored areas on the Hurricane Center map mean?
Tropical weather outlook for the next seven days as of 2 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024.
The hatched areas on the tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said in an interview in 2024.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
First tropical outlook of 2025 issued in March
The National Hurricane Center released its first advisory of the 2025 hurricane season March 17, highlighting a non-tropical area of low pressure well off the coast of Florida. The system had a 10 percent chance of development.
On March 17, the National Hurricane Center posted on its website a map showing an area with a low potential for development.
While the daily tropical outlooks will start on May 15, the exception — as was the case in March — is if forecasters spot an area showing potential for development.
Forecasters highlighted a “non-tropical area of low pressure” located about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The system was not expected to develop, and the Hurricane Center issued no additional advisories.
If it’s not a hurricane or tropical storm, why are tropical outlooks important?
“The tropical weather outlook provides forecasts on areas of disturbed weather that could develop into tropical cyclones,” Kelly said. “It highlights the location, movement, and development potential of these systems over the next two to seven days.
“This information is important for early preparation and awareness during hurricane season so you can be prepared for the hazards that systems can bring, including storm surge, flooding, strong winds, tornadoes and hazardous marine and beach conditions.”
Now is the time to prepare for hurricane season
Forecasters can’t emphasize enough the importance of preparing for tropical storms and hurricanes even before the season begins.
May 4-10 was designated as Hurricane Preparedness Week and NOAA chose a different topic each day to help people know what to do before, during and after a storm.
➤ New to hurricanes? Everything to know about NOAA tips from Hurricane Preparedness Week
“Now is the time to prepare before the season begins,” Kelly said. “Take action TODAY to be better prepared for when the worst happens. Understand your risk from hurricanes, and begin pre-season preparations now. Make sure you have multiple ways of receiving forecasts and alerts, and know what to do before, during, and after a storm. Stay informed throughout the season.”
What are 2025 hurricane season predictions?
Colorado State University meteorologists are predicting the following for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:
AccuWeather is predicting the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could bring:
Truchelut predicted the 2025 season has a 50-50 shot of landing in the ranges of:
Have hurricanes or tropical storms formed before official start of hurricane season?
Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1. Eleven of those storms formed in May.
There have even been occasions when a tropical cyclone has formed in January. Here’s a look back at a few of them:
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Jan. 16-17, 2023: Unnamed subtropical storm.
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May 22-23, 2021: Tropical Storm Ana.
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May 16-19, 2020: Tropical Storm Arthur.
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May 27-28, 2020: Tropical Storm Bertha.
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May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea.
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May 25-31, 2018: Tropical Storm Alberto.
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April 19-21, 2017: Tropical Storm Arlene.
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Jan. 12-15, 2016: Hurricane Alex
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May 27-June 4, 2016: Tropical Storm Bonnie
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May 8-11, 2015: Tropical Storm Ana.
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May 19-22, 2012: Tropical Storm Alberto.
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May 26-30, 2012: Tropical Storm Beryl.
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May 31-June 1, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur.
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May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea.
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April 20-24, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana.
What are the odds of a hurricane coming within 50 miles of Florida in 2025?
Florida ranked No. 1 when it came to the probability of a hurricane coming within 50 miles, at 65%, according to Colorado State University hurricane forecasters.
The climatological average for a hurricane — based on the average from 1880-2020 — to come within 50 miles of Florida is 56%, nine percentage points lower than the chances of a hurricane in 2025.
Florida has 92% chance of being impacted by named storm in 2025
Florida ranked No. 1 when it came to the probability of a named storm coming within 50 miles, at 92%, according to Colorado State University hurricane forecasters.
The climatological average for a named storm — based on the average from 1880-2020 — to come within 50 miles for Florida is 86%, six percentage points lower than the chances of a storm in 2025.
How many tropical cyclones are in an average hurricane season?
Based on a 30-year period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.
2024 season was above-average for tropical cyclones
Five hurricanes and one unnamed subtropical storm made landfall in the U.S. in 2024. Three hurricanes made landfall in Florida: Debby, Helene and Milton.
In 2024, there were:
What are the 2025 hurricane names?
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
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What’s next?
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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: National Hurricane Center tropical outlooks start May 15, development
