July 24 (UPI) — Less than a month before Bolivia’s presidential election, the country is facing one of its worst economic crises in decades — marked by a critical fuel shortage, a collapsed currency market and a population placing its last hope in the polls.
The country’s foreign currency reserves have dried up, dollars are scarce in both formal and informal markets — where the exchange rate has more than doubled — and widespread shortages of diesel and gasoline have crippled key sectors, including public transportation and industry.
In this context, former President Carlos Mesa, who held that office from 2003 to 2005, warned that Bolivia needs a “radical change” in its economic and institutional model, and said the Aug. 17 election will be critical to avoiding a political collapse.
“The last hope in this terrible tunnel Bolivia is living through is the election — a regime change, a president and a government capable of taking control of the situation and restoring the government’s credibility,” Mesa said.
Bolivia’s economy grew just 1.4% in 2024, down from 3.1% the year before. The International Monetary Fund projects even slower real growth in 2025 — around 1.1% — signaling a prolonged slowdown amid financial constraints, low gas prices and mounting macroeconomic pressure. Those figures fall below the regional average, where growth typically hovers around 3% a year.
Mesa blamed the crisis on “20 years of bad governance,” which he says began under former President Evo Morales and continued under current President Luis Arce, whom he accuses of “failing to confront the crisis with the seriousness it demanded.”
Mesa said the state squandered more than $15 billion in reserves since 2015, and that state-run companies are operating with structural deficits. He added that rising inflation is hitting the most vulnerable sectors hardest.
“We went from being hydrocarbon exporters to net importers, with no clear plan for exploration or investment,” he said.
Despite the tense political climate, Mesa said the electoral process is not at risk and ruleed out any possibility of the vote being suspended. He warned, however, that Evo Morales — sidelined from the race after failing to meet legal requirements — could try to disrupt voting in specific regions, such as El Chapare.
“The country understands that this election is the last hope for change. There is no other viable institutional path,” he said.
Recent polls place two opposition candidates — Samuel Doria Medina and Luis “Tuto” Quiroga — at the top, followed by leftist candidate Andrónico Rodríguez in third. None has surpassed 25% support, and with 10% to 15% of voters still undecided, a runoff appears likely Oct. 20.
Beyond the electoral cycle, Mesa offered a scathing assessment of Bolivia’s state apparatus. He denounced a collapsed institutional framework, a judiciary he says is “controlled by members of the ruling party” and a political system dominated by the Movement for Socialismfor nearly two decades.
To reverse that trend, he proposed restoring a pluralist party system, reforming the judicial selection process and partially amending the Constitution in key areas such as justice and the economy.
On economic policy, Mesa said he believes Bolivia will need between $10 billion and $12 billion in liquidity, support from multilateral institutions and tough decisions on subsidies and investment.
Despite the grim outlook, Mesa remains optimistic about the public’s willingness to participate in the process.
“Voting is mandatory, but even if it weren’t, Bolivian society would still go to the polls because it knows this election is the only way out of this catastrophe,” he said.
For Mesa, Aug. 17 is not just about choosing a president — it’s about deciding whether to begin rebuilding a country battered by institutional decay, authoritarianism and economic collapse.
