Polling for the 2028 Republican presidential primaries has started to percolate, and although state contests to choose the next candidate are about three years away, clear favorites are beginning to surface.
Why It Matters
Republicans gained control of the White House, Senate and Congress after the 2024 presidential election amid President Donald Trump’s decisive win.
Several Republicans have called it a “mandate” from the American people to enact GOP-backed legislation and governance nationwide.
Numerous 2028 primary polls have been issued since the 2024 election season, including those involving Democratic contenders.
What To Know
In a new poll released this week by Yale Youth Poll, 53 percent of respondents said they would support Vice President JD Vance in the 2028 primary, and 50 percent of those under age 30 would back him.
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. scored the second highest in the poll, with 8.7 percent, and 13.1 percent from those under 30.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in third with 7.5 percent of the vote, and 5.8 percent from those under 30 years old.
The poll was taken from April 1 to April 3 among 4,100 registered voters, with a 1.9 percent margin of error.
In a poll by Echelon Insights on Monday, Vance was also the front-runner, with a new high of 47 percent. DeSantis was the runner-up with 9 percent and RFK Jr. with 7 percent. The survey was taken from April 10 to April 14 among 1,014 “voters in the likely electorate,” the poll says. The margin of error for the survey is 3.5 percent.
Democratic front-runners appear to be former Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Governor Gavin Newsom.
Vice President JD Vance is seen arriving for a “Make America Wealthy Again” trade announcement event in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
What People Are Saying
Political analyst Craig Agranoff told Newsweek via text message on Tuesday: “In 2028, GOP voters might want a candidate with Trump’s nod but not the full MAGA vibe. Someone who keeps his populist edge; strong on economy or borders, but dials back the divisiveness to pull in moderates.”
Agranoff continued, “They’ll likely value authenticity and a practical governing style. Whether this works for the party depends on how the base and swing voters gel after 2024. Too early to call, but a unifying figure could gain traction.”
MSNBC anchor Lawrence O’Donnell on X this month: “The 2028 Republican Presidential Primary campaign is underway. Rubio v Vance will be, among other things, a cruelty contest.”
California Democratic Representative Ro Khanna speaking at Yale University on Tuesday, NBC News reports: “Vance,” said Khanna, “has not only declared war on the courts, but on the universities. And it is no accident. As Stephen Kotkin observed in his study of Stalin, strongmen do not fear recessions or even failed wars as much as they fear the university.”
What Happens Next
Polls will continue rolling out as the race gets closer and a clearer picture will form on whom Republicans will most likely choose as their candidate for the 2028 presidential election.
