This is a week on the PGA Tour where perspective comes into play.
The Rocket Mortgage Classic is following two signature events and the U.S. Open, and it doesn’t have a strong field.
Many bettors will take the week off or be lazy with their selections.
But this provides us with an opportunity.
If we put in the same effort and research as every other week, perhaps we’ll find something that isn’t accounted for in the betting market.
This week’s event will be held at Detroit Golf Club, which is a par-72 course that measures 7,370 yards.
Based on reports, the course will play a bit longer than it looks on the scorecard.
It is already soft and there’s rain in the forecast.
If golfers aren’t getting roll-out on their drives, it will lengthen the course and widen the fairways.
This was already a good spot for bombers and the conditions should only amplify that this week.
Detroit Golf Club has been one of the easiest courses on tour in each of the past five years.
The average winning score during that stretch has been 23-under par, so we can expect a lot of birdies this week.
And based on the forecast, there’s a chance we could see a winning score of 30-under.
The fairways are wide, and while the greens are small (5,150 square feet), they are easy to hit. In 2023, the field hit 73 percent of greens in regulation.
This increases the importance of putting and decreases the importance of scrambling.
Keep it simple this week — look for long drivers, good iron players and golfers who can have splash weeks with the putter.
Here are my best bets, (odds via BetMGM):
Maverick McNealy (28/1, FanDuel)
McNealy already has three top-10 finishes this year and hasn’t missed a cut since January.
He’s been excellent off the tee, around the green and putting.
In fact, he’s top-20 in all three of those strokes-gained categories in the field.
However, iron play has kept him from being in contention, but he seems to have figured something out on that front.
Over his past five events, he has gained nearly eight strokes on approach.
I love the way his game is trending and the fact that he already has two solid finishes at this event in his career (T21 and T8).
Stephan Jaeger (28/1, BetMGM)
Jaeger picked up his first win on the PGA Tour earlier this year on a course that is similar to Detroit Golf Club.
Over the past few years, he’s transformed from one of the worst drivers on tour to one of the best.
He’s both long and straight off the tee.
He’s excellent on approach and routinely gains strokes around the green.
The putter has cooled off a bit, but he’s still been able to post quality finishes in fields much stronger than this one.
He’s also finished T9 and T5 at this event the past two years.
Betting on golf?
Taylor Pendrith (28/1, Bet365)
I was able to snag this bet at 45/1 early Monday morning, but I still view the 28/1 odds as a good bet.
Much like Jaeger, Pendrith picked up his first career win on a long and easy course earlier this year.
He’s one of the longest drivers of the ball in the field and is currently riding a red-hot putter.
He has gained strokes on the greens in 14 of his last 15 events and has gained more than 16 strokes putting in his past four events alone.
Like my first two selections, Pendrith has experienced success at this course in the past, finishing second to Tony Finau in 2022 and followed it up with a T14 finish last year.
