Anthropic filed for its hotly anticipate IPO on Monday — potentially the biggest initial offering in history — and the San Francisco area’s luxury markets are banking on big business from freshly flush AI employees and early investors.
“Their budgets are just getting bigger and bigger the longer they’re looking, because simply the valuations of the companies are growing, so they’re able to afford more,” Redfin agent Kelley Krock told The Post.
For one buyer at a major AI company, finding the perfect house could wait. He had money to burn.
“I said, I’m not 100% sure this is the house for you, and his response back to me was that it doesn’t matter, he can make it a rental in a year,” Krock recalled.
A Redfin analysis in July estimated current and former Anthropic and OpenAI employees’ potential combined after-tax equity at $198 billion — equivalent to 29% of the San Francisco metro’s residential property value.
“People are already spending that money that they anticipate getting,” Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, told The Post.
“The pre-spending that you tend to see before the event happens tends to be a fraction of what happens after the event.”
San Francisco is already one of America’s most expensive places to rent — and residents without AI stock could face an even bigger squeeze. The city’s median asking rent has reached $4,560 a month, roughly $965 more than a year ago, according to Zumper.
“The Anthropic IPO and other IPOs are going to make it even harder,” Sam Moss, executive director of Mission Housing Development Corporation, told ABC7, adding that “most of us can’t afford houses already.”
Wealthy buyers in other sectors are trying to beat the Anthropic crowd to the closing table ahead of what Krock anticipates will be a “tidal wave.”
“They are very smart and trying to get into a contract now or get into a house now before the quote-unquote flood comes, and things get even more competitive,” she said.
The housing frenzy is already producing eight-figure overbids. An eight-bedroom mansion at 20 Cherry St. in San Francisco’s Presidio Heights sold for $28.5 million on Oct. 22 — a record $10 million above its $18.5 million asking price, just 20 days after being listed, according to MLS-backed brokerage records.
Business is also booming on the water, according to yacht dealer Jeff Brown.
“In our Sausalito store we broke all records in the last two years for sales,” Brown, whose Jeff Brown Yachts has buyers associated with Anthropic and OpenAI, told The Post. “It’s leading our West Coast.”
Axopar adventure boats — which are typically 37 to 45 feet long and priced from $350,000 to $800,000 — have been a popular toy for techies of late.
“They’re using them every day,” said Brown, likening the boats to “a Range Rover on water.” He added, “They use them to commute around the Bay, they use them to go to a basketball game … they use them to go to a restaurant.”
His broader inventory runs from $350,000 to $54 million, with many sales between $2.5 million and $6 million.
Brown, who has been in the boat business for more than 40 years, says AI-related customers arrive with their homework complete.
“The research is done. They’re really walking in the door kind of focusing on a particular boat or experience that they want to have,” he said. “So they’re really well prepared I would say. Prepared, well studied, knowledgeable.”
And, just because they’re rolling in dough doesn’t mean they’re not smart with money.
“They’re very learned negotiators, they’re not wasting money and they’re not being impetuous in their decisions,” he said. “It’s a very specific process and they’re not rushing into things.”
For the newly rich who don’t have much experience on the water, Brown’s company offers training. Modern control panels also make boating easy, especially for techies.
“You drive them with a joystick like you drive a computer,” Brown said. “So if you can operate a computer, a game with a joystick, you can drive these boats.”
Some customers also look to chatbots to help with operating their vessel.
Whether they’re buying yachts or homes, the people with the wads of cash don’t always look the part.
“Holes in their jeans, glasses, hats backward,” Krock said. “They’re just like us, they put their pants on one leg at a time, and they are grateful for being in the right place at the right time.”
