The high expectations for Hawaii football have been put on ice.
The Rainbow Warriors came into the season projected to be one of the contenders to win the new-look Mountain West, but a slow start has Hawaii’s season on the ropes already.
There is still time for Timmy Chang’s bunch to turn things around, but a loss to San Jose State on Saturday will all but end Hawaii’s hopes for a positive campaign.
It’s a midnight ET kickoff on the Island, so expect an outsized betting handle for this one.
San Jose State vs. Hawaii odds, prediction
Weird stuff always tends to happen in these midnight kickoffs in Honolulu, and this one certainly has the potential to get funky.
This is a homecoming game for a pair of former Rainbow Warriors.
SJSU coach Ken Niumatalolo played QB for the Rainbow Warriors in the late 80s, and his quarterback, Luke Weaver, was part of the program last season but beat out by Micah Alejado for the starting gig.
Alejado deserved to beat Weaver and repaid Chang’s faith in him with a boisterous performance in 2025, but the 5-foot-10 sophomore has really struggled to get going this season.
Perhaps Alejado’s nagging injuries are the root cause, but the Hawaii offense has been dreadful through four games, ranking 111th in SP+.
That’s a steep decline for a team that finished 66th in the same category last year.
A dip in form from the offense can be offset by a positive step from the defense, but the Rainbow Warriors have fallen to 109th in defensive SP+. They can’t outscore their problems without the ball, nor can the defense cover their warts offensively. It’s a bad mix.
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San Jose State’s statistical profile is right on par with Hawaii, but the Spartans do pose a real threat running the ball with Jabari Bates. The Compton, Calif., native hasn’t reached paydirt yet, but he’s clipping at 5.3 yards per carry and has racked up nearly 400 yards in his last three games.
San Jose State is traveling across an ocean, but they’re coming off the bye, so they should be up for the challenge of taking on Hawaii at the Ching Complex on Saturday.
The Play: San Jose State moneyline (+133, BetRivers)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
