On a daily basis, NBA bettors must assess storylines and narratives that surface and decipher whether they will have a significant impact on a game or betting outcome.
We seem to have a prime example with Indiana Pacers coach Rick Carlisle and his team’s most recent performance. On Wednesday, Indiana lost to the Orlando Magic 112-100, and his postgame comments raised some eyebrows.
Carlisle avoided specifics but said his team finally started to avoid “petty nonsense” in the second half, when they allowed just 44 points (compared to 68 in the first half). Connecting some dots and talking to sources, it seems as though Carlisle was pleased with the effort and was relieved that some guys were not chasing stats.
The question is whether we can apply any of that to their next game, when Indiana hosts the San Antonio Spurs as 5.5-point underdogs with a total of 241.5 points. Victor Wembanyama is injured and did not travel, so he will not play.
Betting on the NBA?
In the 12 straight games Wembanyama missed with injury, the Spurs went over in seven of them. Plus, they also went 8-4 against the spread (ATS).
There is always a leap of faith with any theory or narrative, but I think we see more effort from the Pacers. The Spurs are not the ideal opponent because they are good and move the ball well on offense. However, this is a high total, and I have to believe that second-half performance against Orlando incentivized the team enough to create betting value.
I have an 85-75-2 ATS record in this Post sports section, and my next play is Under 241.5 points in this game.
The Play: Under 241.5 points (-130, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
