Tarik Skubal is the top target on the MLB free agent market this offseason, which means there will be plenty of bidders and the money could be record breaking.
The two-time Cy Young Award winner landed in Los Angeles with the Dodgers at this year’s trade deadline in the last year of his current deal and now has his pick of the litter when it comes to what’s next.
The prediction market at Kalshi has the Dodgers as clear favorites to land Skubal at 49 percent, while the Mets sit at 37 percent.
A pending MLB lockout would normally pause any negotiations between teams and players, but a pitcher as good as Skubal won’t have any issue getting interest from every team across the league.
Tarik Skubal next team odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dodgers | 48 percent |
| Mets | 37 percent |
| Padres | 20 percent |
| Cubs | 15 percent |
The Dodgers and Mets seem to be the two teams with the best chance to make a convincing case to Skubal.
No one would be surprised if Skubal returns to the Dodgers after the team won 100 games for the sixth time in manager Dave Roberts’ tenure since 2016. They’ve had the highest payroll in baseball for the past three seasons and haven’t been shy about paying massive sums of money to stockpile talent.
The Mets are the only other team openly employing a strategy of outspending the competition. They had MLB’s highest payroll in 2022 and 2023, then came second to the Dodgers in spending over the past three seasons.
Mets general manager David Stearns told reporters during the team’s exit interviews that adding to their starting rotation was necessary, especially at the top.
Money likely won’t be the only thing that sways his decision. Skubal said after the Dodgers season ended that his goal was to win the World Series. Despite being one of the best pitchers in the game, his teams have fallen short in the Division Series for the past three years.
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ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Monday that the Cubs “badly want Skubal” and the Padres are also in the mix. Both teams are stronger playoff contenders than the Mets.
But if money talks for Skubal, the Mets have a chance to make a case better than most teams around the league.
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
