To predict which movies are most likely to win the top prize at the Academy Awards, the Yahoo Best Picture Leaderboard considers a number of factors.
Each year, the winner of the top prize at the Oscars is determined by a vote among members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Since there’s no way to poll them ahead of the ceremony, the Yahoo Best Picture Leaderboard weighs the elements that have been present for past Best Picture winners.
There are three main categories: predictions from influential publications in the entertainment industry, other awards nominations and wins, and the level of search interest and press coverage. The Yahoo Best Picture Leaderboard assigns scores to each movie based on these factors, then ranks the films according to which has the highest score. All three categories are weighted equally at 33%.
Predictions
We are taking into account predictions from a mix of reputable industry sources that are all weighted equally: Variety, the Hollywood Reporter, IndieWire, Deadline, the Los Angeles Times and Gold Derby. When critics’ predictions included a ranking, we converted those numbers into points on an equal scale. For Gold Derby, we used the average vote share among experts, editors and top users and the total odds.
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In a time when anyone can be a critic and share their opinions broadly online — be it individually on social media or through aggregators like Rotten Tomatoes — it can be difficult to discern what reviews reflect the opinions of the people who actually vote for Best Picture. We want to follow the guidance of experts whose job it is to review movies and track awards trends.
Data source: Variety, Hollywood Reporter, IndieWire, Deadline, Los Angeles Times, Gold Derby
Other awards
Over the course of a year, there’s a broad field of awards given to movies at festivals and during ceremonies, honoring all sorts of achievements. We chose to award points for the following nominations and awards wins: Producers Guild of America, Directors Guild of America, Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards and British Academy Film Awards.
Films earn points for being nominated and additional points if they win an award. Each award is weighted equally, and all nominees for an award share equal points.
Though these awards bodies honor different criteria and involve different voters, previous nominations and wins indicate how public opinion is trending as well as what certain experts see as their standard of excellence. These particular awards have a history of predicting future Academy Award winners. There are typically a handful of upsets and unexpected winners on Oscars night, but past performance at other ceremonies indicates which titles are frontrunners. Name recognition and familiarity are also influential to voters.
Data source: Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTA
Search interest and press coverage
The Oscars might be Hollywood’s biggest night, but all year round, movies are meant to be seen and enjoyed by viewers like you. We’re accounting for general audience interest in these films by assigning them points according to the level of search interest and press coverage they’ve received.
Search interest is determined by the volume of queries about the movie in Yahoo Search, while press coverage is defined by the volume of articles written about each movie across Yahoo’s network of publishing partners.
To account for both sustained levels of interest and recent spikes, we’re awarding points both for cumulative volume since the beginning of 2024 and for volume in the past 30 days. Search and press coverage data will be refreshed the Friday prior to each update.
Data source: Yahoo data
