• Over the past six months, Tesla stock has outperformed the rest of the Magnificent Seven.

  • Tesla also boasts the highest one-year earnings growth forecast among the group, excluding Nvidia.

  • That being said, Tesla has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating, indicating mixed earnings revisions.

Looking back, Tesla (TSLA) often takes the most challenging and volatile path higher—but higher it goes. Over the past six months, Tesla stock has outperformed the rest of the Magnificent Seven, even though it was the worst performer during the first half of 2024.

Elon Musk’s alignment with now-President Trump may have given Tesla an edge. As the first mover among mega-cap tech CEOs, Musk set the tone, and now many of his peers have cozied up to the new administration.

Tesla also boasts the highest one-year earnings growth forecast among the group—excluding Nvidia—and is the only company with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP, aside from Amazon. That being said, Tesla has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating, indicating mixed earnings revisions. Additionally, TSLA stock has languished in the last month, while Meta Platforms (META), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) have been exploring new highs.

Zacks Investment Research


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Just as Tesla stock can go from doldrums to leader, so can its earnings results. Over the last four quarters, Tesla has beaten estimates once, by 24.14% and missed three times, by as much as -16.13%. This earnings volatility reflects broader challenges, including its first decline in vehicle delivery growth last year, pricing adjustments, and margin pressures.

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Tesla’s Energy Generation and Storage business has emerged as its most profitable segment, with deployments growing at an impressive 180% CAGR over three years. The company’s charging division shows promise, with major automakers like Ford, GM, and Mercedes adopting Tesla’s North American Charging Standard across their 60,000+ connector network. 

However, challenges loom. Tesla faces margin pressure amid economic uncertainty, and competition is intensifying. Its US EV market share has declined to 50% from 63% in 2022, while Chinese competitors like BYD and NIO continue to gain ground. In the autonomous vehicle race, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system remains at Level 2, requiring human supervision, while competitors like Alphabet’s Waymo have been running regulated robotaxi pilots for years.

Tesla often trades in boom-and-bust patterns, marked by aggressive rallies lasting months or years, followed by sharp corrections and extended consolidations. Leading up to the presidential election, Tesla began gaining momentum, and after the election, it surged higher. Looking at the chart, it appears Tesla has taken three major legs higher since the summer, more than doubling in value.

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