Gavin Newsom’s 2028 presidential ambitions are about to get a self-imposed stress test after months of putting his political muscle behind one of the Democratic Party’s more daring campaigns of 2025.
California voters are set decide on a Nov. 4 ballot initiative that would radically change how the Golden State’s congressional boundaries are drawn.
Newsom is responsible for this rare off-cycle political campaign, setting it up as a heavyweight counterpunch to President Donald Trump, who has arm-twisted Republican-led legislatures from Texas to Indiana to Missouri to redo their own maps ahead of next year’s all-important midterms.
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Much more than Democrats potentially winning back control of the U.S. House of Representatives is at stake for the 58-year-old Newsom. The second-term governor has been busy this year trying to distinguish himself from other White House hopefuls with a media blitz and punchy-style online that has mimicked the MAGA leader while standing up against the Trump administration at almost every turn.
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“The meaning of a win in California is huge for Democrats in 2026, and obviously it’s a monumental political win for the governor,” Sean Clegg, a senior Newsom strategist, told USA TODAY in an interview.
Newsom could use the boost as he traverses through a shadow presidential primary that so far lacks a clear favorite on the road to the White House but features prominent figures such as fellow Californian Kamala Harris, the former vice president who is largely absent from the 2025 campaign trail while selling a memoir about her 2024 loss to Trump.
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It’s why he is betting that voters will accept Proposition 50, which would allow the state legislature to redo California’s 52 congressional districts through 2030 and create as many as five more seats favorable to Democrats before the November 2026 election.
Newsom is spending a significant amount of his political stock to galvanize Democrats, including former President Barack Obama and his likely 2028 rivals, into breaking a long-held orthodoxy against meddling with congressional maps. If successful, Proposition 50 would ditch a nonpartisan commission California voters established via a 2010 ballot initiative that draws those district boundaries.
Protesters form a human banner on Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California on Oct. 18, 2025 supporting California’s Proposition 50 redistricting ballot measure and opposing President Donald Trump during nationwide “No Kings” demonstrations.
For Newsom, it’s a move that he believes must be done. While a firm supporter of the independent commission, he and other Democrats cannot wait and hope for the best, according to a confidant close to Newsom who requested anonymity in order to speak freely.
In interviews, Newsom has talked about his ballot initiative efforts by putting the spotlight on what success this year means: Making next November’s midterms a clear referendum for voters as the “de facto” end of Trump’s presidency.
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“I can’t take what’s going on. I mean, no bull—-. I can’t take it,” Newsom said in an Oct. 25 appearance on the “All the Smoke” podcast, hosted by former NBA players Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson. He added: “Every single day, every single hour and it’s not even about Dems versus Republicans, it’s about this country and what we stand for. They’re literally putting America in reverse.”
Proposition 50 carries Newsom’ 2028 aspirations
California Governor Gavin Newsom announces efforts to reduce crime by deploying California Highway Patrol (CHP) crime suppression teams to hotspots in the state, during a news conference in his office in Sacramento, California, U.S. August 28, 2025.
Newsom’s efforts come with big risks.
The ballot initiative he’s pushing is costing taxpayers a whopping $282.6 million, according to state agencies. If the governor fails or crosses the finish line with lackluster margins, California political experts warn it will drive home many of the negatives attacks rung by opponents that argue Newsom alienates more swing voters than he attracts.
“If the results are close, that doesn’t play well for Gavin Newsom either,” said Brian Sobel, a longtime political analyst based in the San Francisco Bay Area.
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“Even a low double-digit win, I think that’s going to reflect poorly,” Sobel added. “But if it’s a runaway win, yeah, that’s another feather in his cap.”
More than the other fall campaigns in Virginia, New Jersey or New York City – all places where Trump also looms – Proposition 50 is an early showcase of one specific Democratic 2028 contender’s influence. By all accounts, Newsom appears on the verge of a double-digit victory.
A ballot drop box in San Francisco ahead of the vote on Proposition 50.
An Emerson College poll released Oct. 24 showed 57% of likely California voters back Proposition 50 versus 37% who oppose it. An additional 6% remain undecided.
Congressional maps aren’t the only place where Newsom has done battle with Trump. The governor has used his megaphone and authority running California to insert himself – and his imminent presidential bid – in almost every debate about the second-term Republican president, filling a void that contrasts with Democrats’ being out of power in Washington.
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Newsom has filed suits over the president threatening to send National Guard troops into California; combated the administration on imposing foreign tariffs; established climate partnerships at a time when Trump is leaving them; highlighted civil rights; funded reproductive rights; and supplemented food banks amid the ongoing government shutdown.
Newsom’s profile has been rising for years. He was included on the short list of presidential candidates in 2022 when Democrats started airing concerns about then-President Joe Biden’s ability to run for a second term. At the time, the California governor balked at suggestions he should directly challenge the incumbent president in a primary and instead played a Biden surrogate.
But when he jousted during a FOX News debate with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who was running for president on the GOP primary side, political observers suggested the pair were who voters really wanted to choose from in 2024.
Journalists watch Florida Governor and Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis debate California Governor Gavin Newsom on a screen in the media room, in Alpharetta, Georgia, U.S., November 30, 2023.
“Honestly the country would be incredibly better off if this was our choice,” Benjamin Domenech, a conservative commentator, said in an October 2023 post on X.
Fast forward to 2025 and Newsom’s upcoming ballot initiative will be closely watched as a show of his political might much in the same way other would-be contenders, such as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who faces a 2026 reelection race that he’ll need to win in order to have a chance at 2028.
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Besides Obama, who has starred in an ad urging a ‘yes’ vote on the measure, Newsom is bringing other key figures into the fight. He successfully recruited former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in addition to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, of New York, and Sen. Chris Murphy, of Connecticut. Both Ocasio-Cortez and Murphy are seen as possible 2028 Democratic candidates for president.
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“I think every single state that’s run by Democrats should be using every amount of leverage they have to play the same game that Republicans are,” Murphy told USA TODAY. “We didn’t start this, but we can’t unilaterally disarm.”
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum shakes hands with California Governor Gavin Newsom in the spin room, ahead of the debate between Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., September 10, 2024.
Sources close to Newsom said the governor’s push to take the redistricting battle beyond California underscores his ability to bring different factions together. It also helps that other Democrats are following his lead, as more GOP-led states try to redraw their own maps at Trump’s urging ahead of the 2026 midterms.
The Virginia legislature convened this month and passed a measure along partisan lines to redraw its congressional maps via a constitutional amendment that aims to create two or three additional Democratic-held seats. In Illinois, Gov. JB Pritzker, another potential 2028 White House contender, told reporters on Oct. 27 he’s having conversations about changing the state’s congressional map with legislators.
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“Oh sure, I think it’s possible,” Pritzker said. “This is all about the fact that Donald Trump is now trying to, well, rig the game.”
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, another possible 2028 presidential contender, compared the national fight over congressional district maps to “political redlining” and was eager to join the fray. But those plans have been thwarted by one of their own. Democrat Bill Ferguson, the Maryland state Senate president, is against the idea, according to reports.
Naysayers on both sides attack, question Newsom’s effectiveness
A sign supporting Proposition 50, aimed at countering Republican-led redistricting in Texas by redrawing California’s congressional map to favor Democrats, in a residential neighborhood in Encinitas, California, U.S., September 29, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake
Newsom’s White House ambitions remain just that, for now.
But the fact he’s eyeing a campaign announcement soon after the 2026 midterms results, according to CBS News, sets him up as an architect of the Democratic comeback should his efforts in California help bloom a House majority for his party one year from now.
The governor’s critics are using the costly ballot initiative to poke holes in his growing aura as detractors argue it represents a naked self-centered effort that is more about Newsom’s presidential ambitions than protecting democracy.
More: California redistricting fight has voters pushing back – against Trump and Newsom
Jessica Millan Patterson, a former California Republican Party chair who leads a “No on Prop 50” group backed by the U.S. House GOP, said the state’s redistricting panel is popular and should be credited with creating diverse delegations in Sacramento, the state’s capital, and Washington.
Voters approved the commission to protect themselves from politicians selecting their own constituents, she said, and they are leaning into that message now with an eye on Democrats, people who have no party preference and also GOP-aligned ones.
“So to say that this is a power grab, I think, is kind of an understatement,” Millan Patterson said. “It is nothing more than a stepping stone for Gavin Newsom to run for president.”
This has been an uphill battle for opponents, however, as state data shows the campaign against Proposition 50 has raked in roughly $78 million. Groups supporting the cause have raised $127.5 million.
Newsom holds an overall positive job approval from California voters, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll released in October. It found 53% of approve of his job performance versus 47% who disapprove.
Opposing the governor is a leading reason for Proposition 50 opponents to show up, the survey shows, with 51% saying Newsom is why they’re against the initiative.
Newsome’s skeptics also include the activist left who aren’t sold on him becoming the Democratic face of the party in 2026 and beyond, even as they support combating Trump and the GOP’s redistricting efforts.
Adam Green, cofounder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, an influential left-leaning group, said Newsom has not set himself apart as someone average Americans think of as the authentic messenger who connects with a more positive vision for working people.
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“We’re living in an outsider moment,” Green said. “Today’s politics are not about left versus right. They’re more accurately about outsider rage versus creatures of the inside.”
As much as many Democrats enjoy brawling with Trump, changing congressional maps like Newsom now advocates in the middle of a decade – rather than at a decade’s start once new U.S. census data is compiled – does create uneasiness inside the party.
Independent commissions take the process out of the hands of elected officials, said Sen. Andy Kim, D-New Jersey, who emphasized that he strongly believes in voters choosing who represents them.
President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump are greeted by California Governor Gavin Newsom upon arrival at Los Angeles International Airport in Los Angeles, California, on January 24, 2025, to visit the region devastated by the Palisades and Eaton fires.
“I don’t like any of this, honestly,” he said.
But Kim added that he thinks Trump and his GOP allies can’t get away with “blatant cheating” to keep a majority in Congress.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who has been making similar pre-2028 presidential pit stops in early states, TV interviews and podcasts, “wishes Republicans hadn’t moved forward with their cynical ploy in Texas,” a spokesman told USA TODAY.
Beshear acknowledges, however, both parties have to play by the same rules and supports Proposition 50, the spokesman said.
Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Arizona, another rumored 2028 contender, said he has no idea if Proposition 50 prevailing would help out Newsom’s presidential efforts. But he said he agreed that Democratic-led states must take action.
“More importantly, it’s going to stop the Republicans from trying to get a permanent majority in this country,” Gallego told USA TODAY in an interview. “Again, I wish we could pass anti-gerrymandering legislation, but until then I don’t believe in unilateral disarmament.”
Newsom’s office has been working to quell these concerns by spotlighting that a provision under Proposition 50 would return California to a citizen-led redistricting commission process after the 2030 census. They are emphasizing that his political aims include reinvigorating Democrats by building confidence, focusing on local and state elections and developing a clear national message.
But Newsom himself isn’t being shy about those ambitions. One day after Harris teased that she is “not done” with public life in an Oct. 25 BBC interview, Newsom yanked the spotlight back, telling “CBS News Sunday Morning” during an interview about his many points of opposition to Trump that he’d be “lying otherwise” if he didn’t admit running for president was on his mind.
Contributing: Zachary Schermele, Sarah D. Wire
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Redistricting battle sets up Gavin Newsom’s likely 2028 bid
