The News
Around half of the world’s population — some 4 billion people — headed to the polls in 2024, marking one of the most democratically active years in history.
In South Africa and India, the ruling parties saw some support eroded amid accusations of democratic backsliding and corruption. Other countries were tossed into political turmoil: European nations saw a surge in far-right parties’ support, while France and Germany, the eurozone’s most powerful economies, saw their governments collapse. The US, meanwhile, saw the political comeback of Donald Trump.
As 2024 comes to a close, these are some of the world elections from the last 12 months that many experts and pundits agree will shape international geopolitics for years to come.
The View From The US
The reelection of Donald Trump on Nov. 5 marked one of the most dramatic and successful political comebacks in US history. Trump, who contested the 2020 election results and faced multiple federal and state charges related to his first term and its aftermath, decisively won the popular and electoral college vote after campaigning on discontent over the economy and anti-immigration sentiment.
Democrats are still debating what went wrong, but the vote showed that “Republicans have a broader appeal with non-college educated voters who used to be Democrats,” Semafor’s Dave Weigel wrote at the time, particularly among men. Republicans also gained narrow control over the House and Senate, which could smooth the path for some of Trump’s policies to become law.
Trump insiders believe the president-elect is better equipped now to “navigate complex agencies and policy processes, making a faster — and more ambitious — agenda possible,” Politico wrote.
The View from Asia
India
Indian Prime Minster Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist party were expected to easily win a landslide victory in this year’s general election. But his party actually lost several seats and was forced to form a coalition government, a loss many international observers hailed as a win for democracy given Modi’s perceived authoritarian tendencies.
The divided government means Modi could face challenges in achieving some of his more controversial, identity-driven policies, UK think tank Chatham House argued, including a uniform civil code, which critics say would strip Muslims’ religious rights, as well as constitutional changes that would give more power to the prime minister.
Modi’s reelection has also seen India continue to pursue an independent foreign policy: Delhi has maintained trading links with Russia despite Western opprobrium over the war in Ukraine, while also remaining on friendly terms with Washington. Meanwhile, US President-elect Donald Trump’s threats toward Beijing could prove a boon to India, with Modi positioning the country as an alternative manufacturing center for US companies looking to divest from China.
Indonesia
In February, Indonesians elected ex-military general Prabowo Subianto in a ballot criticized for apparent irregularities to do with Prabowo’s predecessor, Joko Widodo.
Prabowo’s election reflected an image overhaul that belies his past service under Indonesia’s brutal dictator Suharto and his history of US sanctions for human rights abuses. In seeking to appear more personable, Prabowo may hope to attract more foreign investment in Indonesia’s shaky economy, the Lowy Institute argued.
His approach to China and the US, in particular, could see Prabowo hew closer to Beijing than to Washington, which could present a challenge to incoming President Donald Trump as his administration seeks to curb Chinese ambitions in the Pacific region.
The View from Europe
France
France spiraled into political chaos this summer after President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election, a move widely interpreted as a kind of dare to citizens to vote for the far right National Rally after their strong performance in the European Union parliamentary elections. The result was a split parliament: Both the far-left and far-right coalitions gained seats, but neither had enough support to form a government.
The eventual choice of prime minister, Conservative Michel Barnier, was ousted earlier this month, and Macron’s latest pick, centrist François Bayrou, “has done little to prove he’ll be able to climb the mountain,” Politico wrote. Meanwhile, the political turmoil has left Paris unable to tame its ballooning debt.
France’s political crisis poses a larger problem for European security as both it and Germany — the EU’s two largest economies — are effectively being run by caretaker governments who may be left unable to focus on support for Ukraine or NATO, NPR wrote.
The UK
In July, the Labour Party toppled 14 years of Conservative rule after winning a landslide victory in a snap election, albeit with one of the lowest voter turnouts in several decades. The shift toward Labour was seen by some analysts as a potential stepping for reconsidering the UK’s relationship to the European Union since the fallout from Brexit, with the new Labour chancellor recently attending a meeting of EU finance ministers.
However, the new Prime Minister Keir Starmer is deeply unpopular with the general public, while the country’s strained social services struggle to keep up with budget cuts and record levels of migration.
So far, Starmer has offered “tepid” solutions, “often echoing failed Tory policies and ideas that fall short of addressing today’s concerns,” The Guardian wrote.
The View from Latin America
Mexico
While many elections this year were marked by anti-incumbency sentiment, that trend was not evident in Mexico. Voters in June overwhelmingly elected Claudia Sheinbaum, the protégé of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, as the country’s first woman and first Jewish president.
Sheinbaum inherited a robust economy and is expected to continue pushing López Obrador’s leftist agenda, with a focus on heavy state involvement in infrastructure and energy development.
But her victory was not without controversy: International observers decried López Obrador’s overhaul of how judges get chosen — which Sheinbaum supported — as politicizing the judicial branch, and several independent government watchdogs have dissolved during her presidency already. She has also largely stayed silent on how her administration will tackle skyrocketing organized crime and violence.
Across the border with the US, Donald Trump’s threat of 25% tariffs on Mexican imports and skepticism over Chinese investment in Mexico also present challenges.
Venezuela
A presidential election in July saw the incumbent President Nicolás Maduro claim victory despite international monitors assessing the vote to be neither free nor fair. Opposition candidate Edmundo González, who had been expected to win based on polling before the vote, was forced to seek asylum in Spain, while Venezuelans took to the streets in mass protests.
Maduro’s grip on power has exacerbated the country’s already crippled-economy: Crude oil production plummeted in November as a result of US sanctions, although it is unclear whether the incoming administration will shift its stance as it seeks to curb migration from Venezuela at the southern border.
The View From South Africa
Marred by years of corruption scandals and deteriorating infrastructure, South Africa’s African National Congress party — which has continuously ruled the country since the fall of apartheid — lost its parliamentary majority for the first time, forcing it to form a coalition government with several rival parties.
The country has seen some progress since the May election, including reduced power cuts and expected lower interest rates that are stabilizing the economy and reassuring investors, according to Reuters. Nonetheless, President Cyril Ramaphosa has acknowledged South Africa has a long way to go in solving other crises like poverty and unemployment, which still plague a significant proportion of the population.
