WASHINGTON — Republicans’ best shot at keeping the House in 2026 could rest with a crucial Voting Rights Act case before the Supreme Court — and it’s putting some senior Democratic leaders in the hot seat.
By some estimates, the GOP could pick up nine or more congressional seats if the high court strikes down race-based districts.
That looks likely — a majority of the conservative justices indicated they oppose the Civil Rights era restriction during oral arguments two months ago.
“It’s potentially really important for 2026,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told The Post.
At issue is Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which bans any law or map that results in the denial of the right to vote on account of race or color.
In practice, the law has been used to create majority-minority congressional districts that favor Democrats — especially in Republican majority states with large black populations.
“If it comes and it completely changes our understanding of Section 2 and doesn’t protect these districts anymore, you could have a significant impact,” Kondik explained.
“You could see several states in the South potentially eliminating Democratic districts in states like Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee.”
Since 1938, the party in control of the White House has lost House seats in all but two elections. Given the GOP’s ultra-slim majority, that could mean they will lose power.
The Supreme Court’s decision could completely upend that dynamic.
One analysis by the New York Times’ Nate Cohn found that if the Supreme Court entirely eliminates the Voting Rights Act race-based districts, Republicans could cut the 24 seats that Democrats hold in the South in half.
That includes nine pickups directly tied to Section 2’s demise.
But there are a lot of big unknowns.
There are also some risks. If they strip away Voting Rights Act districts, red states could create moderate swing seats where blue dog Democrats might find a home — particularly in a blue wave cycle.
“I personally am not putting a number on it because we don’t know when it’s coming. We don’t know what it’ll say. And we don’t necessarily know how states will respond,” Kondik said.
While it is impossible to know how fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais will unfold, there are about 30 districts with a majority or plurality black population, according to Ballotpedia.
In theory, the more than half of those districts located in red states could be in jeopardy.
Here is a sampling of some of the reps whose districts could be at risk:
Cleo Fields
Given that his 6th Congressional District is in the crosshairs of the Louisiana v. Callais case, it’s safe to say that Rep. Cleo Fields (D-La.) is one of the most at-risk lawmakers in the Voting Rights Act case.
Republicans in Louisiana were forced to redraw the 6th congressional district as a second black majority last year due to Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, following a protracted redistricting fight in the courts.
Despite many observers believing that the Supreme Court was poised to upend Section 2, Fields was somewhat optimistic after oral arguments.
“I am cautiously optimistic following this morning’s hearing, we must remain vigilant and committed to defending the principles enshrined in Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965,” he said in a statement.
Troy Carter
Like Fields, Rep. Troy Carter (D-La.), who represents most of New Orleans, appears to be at risk as well, given that the Republicans in control of his home state are actively exploring ways to quash Louisiana’s two Democratic congressional districts.
“The Voting Rights Act is not a relic; it is a living promise that our democracy belongs to everyone,” he stressed after oral arguments. “For nearly 200 years, Black Americans had virtually no representation in government.”
“The Voting Rights Act, forged in the blood, was enacted to right that wrong. It remains as vital today as it was 60 years ago.”
Jim Clyburn
Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) is the sole Democrat serving South Carolina in Washington, and he’s one of the most prominent members of the House — widely seen as responsible for saving Joe Biden’s then-flailing 2020 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Some state Republicans are believed to be contemplating the possibility of reconfiguring Clyburn’s 6th Congressional District if the Supreme Court hands down a favorable decision.
“I’m the ninth” black congressman from South Carolina, Clyburn told NBC’s “Meet the Press” earlier this month. “The problem is there are 95 years between number eight and number nine.”
“I believe that what we are approaching with this Supreme Court could very well result in the next century being one that will repeat that which took place in the previous century in 1877.”
Steve Cohen
Not all the potential beneficiaries of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act are black. Republicans could get an opening to carve up Rep. Steve Cohen’s (D-Tenn.) 9th congressional district.
Cohen is the sole congressional Democrat from Tennessee and the only member of the state’s delegation to represent a district with a majority black population.
In fact, his district has the second-highest percentage of black residents of any congressional district in the country after Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.)
Bennie Thompson
Like Cohen and Clyburn, Thompson is the sole Democrat in his state’s congressional delegation. He’s also the former chairman of the House Select Committee on Jan. 6, and was pardoned by President Biden in his final hours in office.
The congressman has warned that the Supreme Court’s decision could prompt Mississippi Republicans to dramatically change his 2nd congressional district.
“In Mississippi, that could make it harder for Black voters in the 2nd District to have a say. We can’t let decades of progress be undone,” he said on the day of oral arguments.
Shomari Figures
Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Ala.) is benefiting from a court-mandated plurality minority district in keeping with Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
The Supreme Court had ordered Alabama to redraw the state’s 2nd congressional district in Allen v. Miligan, a case that has loomed large over Louisiana v. Callais.
Alabama Republicans have already shown interest in revamping the 2nd congressional district, so Figures could very much be at risk.
Terri Sewell
Rep. Terri Sewell’s (D-Ala.) 7th congressional district was established as a majority minority district in 1992 due to the Voting Rights Act.
Given that Alabama Republicans have recently tried to prevent the drawing of Figures’ district as a majority minority, they could turn their attention to Sewell’s district as well if the Supreme Court frees them up to do so.
Wesley Bell
Not long after he took down former Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) in a bruising primary contest, Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.) could face an attempt by Republicans to wipe away his district.
Bell is one of two congressional Democrats from Missouri, alongside Emanuel Cleaver. His district has a plurality black population, and is weighted toward Dems by 29 percentage points.
While there are considerable practical obstacles to carving up Bell’s district for political gain, some state Republicans, such as Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway’s office, have argued his district is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.
Impact on GOP control of the House — along with partisan redistricting
Republicans currently have a 220-213 majority in the House, with two Democratic seats vacant. That means House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) can only afford three defections on partisan votes.
President Trump has sought to stave off historical midterm losses in 2026 by asking GOP-led states to pass rare mid-decade redistricting maps. The crown jewel of that effort has been Texas, where Republicans passed new congressional maps that could produce five more GOP seats in the House.
Trump’s allies are studying other states, such as Florida, for potential pickup opportunities as well.
But California voters green-lit a ballot measure in November to redistrict in a way that fully neutralizes Texas’ changes by picking up more Democratic seats.
“The results so far have kind of been a wash from a partisan standpoint,” Kondik observed. “I think the one way where Republicans really could come out of this with a much better overall house map is a quick and maximal [Voting Rights Act] decision.”
“Failing that, they may get a little bit of an edge out of redistricting, but probably not as big as they would have hoped.”
