President Biden’s debate meltdown has thrown Democrats into a frenzy. Many think Biden is a goner, but they wonder who might replace him even if they could persuade him to drop out. They have an obvious best choice if they think it through: a ticket of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock.
It’s easy to see why. Vice President Kamala Harris’ favorability ratings are as poor as Biden’s. She’s also not known for her campaign ability: Her 2020 presidential bid fizzled so badly she dropped out months before the Iowa caucus.
Harris has her own communications problem to overcome. No one thinks the 59-year-old is in mental decline, but she often speaks in confusing word salads almost impossible to decipher. Her repeated use of the tortured phrase “what we can be unburdened by what has been” is being lampooned on the Internet. Harris’ penchant for indecipherable gibberish was even mocked by the usually liberal “The Daily Show” in a recent skit. Democrats will not want to turn to an unpopular second banana who can’t speak clearly herself.
Harris’ position, though, creates problems for a party that insists on identity politics. Pushing Biden out for another white man might not be a problem, but denying a black woman her shot at the prize would be a disaster. Nor can Democrats solve the problem by replacing her with another black woman. There is no other black Democratic female politician yet with the stature and experience to credibly slot in.
Some might mention Michelle Obama, but serious Democrats know she’s not the right choice. She doesn’t like partisan politics and has no experience as a candidate. Rousing the party faithful in rare, staged settings is much different from the daily brutal back and forth someone who wants to sit in the Oval Office must engage in.
That means the replacement for a Biden-Harris ticket must do three things. First, it needs to be headed by people young and articulate enough to clearly distinguish themselves from their predecessors. Second, the new ticket needs to be liberal enough to satisfy party progressives while also appealing to independent moderates. Third, it needs to include a black and a woman so that these powerful interest groups aren’t shunted aside.
Whitmer-Warnock satisfies all three tests.
Both are in their early 50s, relatively young for presidential candidates and nearly three decades younger than Biden. Each can speak well, with Warnock having proved his rhetorical chops as pastor at Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s Ebenezer Baptist Church. Conservatives might not like what they say, but there is no doubt they can avoid the word salads and incomprehension inherent in the Biden-Harris ticket.
Each satisfies the political test of being capable of bringing moderates and liberals together. Whitmer has twice been elected Michigan’s governor while Warnock has won two brutally competitive Senate races in uber-purple Georgia. Democratic strategists will note these are two of the swing states whose votes will determine the winner. If they can hold their states, former President Donald Trump would need to win three of the rest to narrowly prevail.
Warnock might also help with Democrats’ worrying problem with black voters. Many are souring on Biden, and Harris has never inspired deep loyalty among them. Warnock, on the other hand, has deep roots in the black church and easily held onto traditionally huge margins with black voters in 2022 when running against black football star Herschel Walker. He might not be able to win back all the potentially lost votes, but he has to be able to do better than Biden or Harris.
Paired together, they would also make history. Whitmer-Warnock would be the first major party ticket without a white man in either slot. The prospect of electing America’s first female president would energize feminists and be attractive to the independent suburban women who have fueled Democrats’ recent gains. Warnock is young enough to clearly be envisioned as Whitmer’s successor even if she were to serve two terms. That could inspire black voters to turn out at rates they haven’t since Barack Obama’s candidacies.
Their potential competitors fail on one or more of these tests. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is popular, but he’s probably too moderate for progressives’ liking. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker is a wealthy multibillionaire from a safely blue state who couldn’t even persuade his state’s voters to support income-tax hikes for the wealthy. Progressives like Sen. Elizabeth Warren are too polarizing for America’s swing voters.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the only serious alternative, and he has many weaknesses. He is a compelling speaker and straddles the progressive-liberal line. But he would have to defend California’s dismal recent record of rising crime, fiscal crises and homelessness. He also has his COVID-era trip to the tony restaurant The French Laundry in violation of his own lockdown rules to live down. Plus, his ex-wife, Kimberly Guilfoyle, is Donald Trump Jr.’s paramour. Does the Democratic Party really want that family infighting, and Newsom’s past affair with the wife of his campaign manager, to detract from painting Trump as a man with the morals of an alley cat?
Biden may yet weather the storm, and who knows if Democrats could put aside their personal loyalties and animosities for the greater good? But there’s an obvious choice out there, and Trump should be very worried if it happens.
Henry Olsen, a political analyst and commentator, is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.
