It’s a near dead-heat, but Mikie Sherrill will narrowly win the NJ governor election on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025, predicts AtlasIntel, considered the “most accurate” poll by statistician Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight (538).
Silver, who was lauded by President Donald Trump after the political prognosticator accurately gave him a 56% chance of winning in 2024, runs the online newsletter “Silver Bulletin” and is advisor to prediction platform, Polymarket. Silver gave AtlasIntel an A+ score, ranking it 1st place over top-rated pollsters like The Washington Post, The New York Times/Siena College, and Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research. Silver uses a full formula metric in his ratings called Predictive Plus-Minus, a methodology that combines statistical data, historical accuracy and transparency/disclosure standards.
In the 2020 presidential election, AtlasIntel was considered the most accurate pollster, with the lowest average error of 2.2 points. Following the 2024 presidential election, AtlasIntel earned top spot-on Silver’s best list of pollsters in the nation, and throughout Latin American election cycles.
Could Ciattarelli flip New Jersey red? Or will Sherill keep the NJ governor’s mansion under Democratic control? New Jersey is just one of two gubernatorial contests in the nation this year, along with Virginia (plus the NYC mayor’s race). Tomorrow’s election also helps set up the 2026 midterm elections, revealing the strengths and weaknesses of each party.
NJ governor race prediction
Odds, predictions and polls show a tight NJ governor race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Ciattarelli currently trails Sherrill by between 4.6 and 6.6. points, depending on which polling average you use. Statistician Nate Silver, in a blog post on Nov. 1, said Sherill’s average lead in the polls makes her a solid favorite.
The fundaments are solid for Democrats in New Jersey: It’s a blue-ish state (20% of North Jersey towns flipped red in 2024) and it’s an off-year with Trump not on the ballot, Silver said. However, current Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy isn’t popular (some polls have his approval rating in the state below Trump’s), and the last time a party won three consecutive terms in the NJ governor’s mansion was in 1965.
“A close race could just come down to Sherrill being part of an unpopular two-time incumbent party,” Silver wrote. “That’s why it’s going to be hard to infer much from this election, either about the state of New Jersey or the broader political environment.”
New Jersey Republican Gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli speaks to his supporters in a parking lot off Route 35 in Hazlet Sunday, November 2, 2025, during a rally two days before the election.
AtlasIntel polls
While it’s a near dead-heat, Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads 50.2% over Republican Jack Ciattarelli’s 49.3%, according to AtlasIntel’s latest poll on Oct. 31. Less than 1% of voters are undecided.
AtlasIntel was lauded as having the most accurate polling in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. The firm received an A+ and was given the top spot among American pollsters on the “Silver Bulletin” earlier this year by the nation’s leading election prognosticators, Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight (538).
Here are some other findings in the poll:
-
Ciattarelli leads with men 59.3% to 40.5%, while Sherrill with women 58.7% to 40.6%.
-
Ciattarelli leads with Black voters 59.5% to Sherill’s 40.1%, while Sherill has 61.8% of Latino voters to Ciattarelli’s 38.2%.
-
President Donald Trump’s rating with New Jersey voters is underwater, with a 47% approval and 52% disapproval.
-
NJ voters say the most important issues in deciding who should be NJ governor are inflation, cost of living and affordability (66.3%).
-
Of those who voted for Trump is last year’s presidential election, 99.2% say they’ll back Ciattarelli, with 0.6% voting for Sherrill. Of those who voted for Kamala Harris, 96.2% will back Sherrill, and 3.2% will vote Ciattarelli.
-
Gov. Phil Murphy’s approval rating drops below Trump’s approval among this group of New Jersey voters: 43% approval compared to 53% disapproval.
-
NJ voters say Murphy has best handled reproductive rights (41% excellent), but tanks when it comes to handling inflation, cost of living and affordability in the Garden State (just 9% say he has done “excellent,” while 45% say “terrible”)
-
The political figure with the most “positive” image to NJ voters is Barack Obama (51%), with Mikie Sherrill second with 49% positive votes. The lowest political figure is former Gov. Chris Christie (14% positive).
Mikie Sherrill, Democratic candidate for governor, walks on stage before delivering a speech during a voter rally at Essex County College in Newark on Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025.
The poll was conducted with 1,639 likely New Jersey voters between Oct. 25-30. The margin of error was plus-or-minus 2.2 percentage points. Some critics have questioned AtlasIntel’s crosstabs, particularly with Ciattarelli’s lead with Black voters.
Lori Comstock is a New Jersey-based journalist with the Mid-Atlantic Connect Team.
This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: ‘Most accurate’ poll predicts winner of NJ governor election 2025
