Russia’s defence ministry may believe its forces are “defeating” Ukraine’s counter-offensive in the Kursk region, but Vladimir Putin clearly doesn’t.
He has sent one of his toughest generals to organise the fight back against Ukraine’s surprise Sunday morning counter-offensive.
General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, promoted in December 2024 by Putin and trusted to run Russia’s border defences and Africa mercenary projects, arrived in Kursk less than a couple of hours after Ukrainian tanks started rumbling towards Russian positions.
By sending Gen Yevkurov to Kursk, Putin has shown his hand.
Although it is still unclear how successful the Ukrainian counter-offensive will be, he is clearly worried.
Repelling Ukraine’s August 2024 advance into Russia’s southern Kursk region has become a priority project for Putin before Donald Trump is inaugurated as US president on Jan 20 2025 and imposes a peace deal. Turning up to negotiations with Ukraine still holding on to Russian territory, even small parcels, will weaken Putin.
Ukraine wants to hang on to territory in the Kursk region – via Reuters
Volodymyr Zelensky knows this. The Ukrainian president may have calculated that with his forces being pushed back along the main front line, applying pressure in Kursk is his best option.
If his forces can push back Russian soldiers in Kursk and hold on to captured ground for another two or three weeks, Mr Zelensky may feel that he can strengthen his negotiating position.
But the stakes are still much higher for Mr Zelensky. Sunday’s Kursk counter-offensive could be his final roll of the dice.
Since the start of the war in February 2022, Mr Zelensky had staked his presidency on an unflinching determination to defeat Russia on the battlefield.
His language has softened since the summer, when it became clear that Ukraine was too weak to defeat Russia militarily and Mr Trump won the US presidential election, but his instinct is still to fight rather than negotiate.
Mr Zelensky’s problem is that this instinct now lies at odds with the exhausted Ukrainian population which now favours negotiating a peace deal with Russia.
He will hope that his attack in Kursk will once again persuade his Western allies that Ukraine still has the stomach for a fight and is worth backing.
As for Putin, Sunday’s action is probably more of an irritation, perhaps just a distraction, than a major headache.
It is a personal affront for Ukraine to attack his forces inside Russia again, but he will cling to his core belief that with the weight of numbers, Russian forces will defeat Ukrainian troops eventually.
The problem for Putin is “eventually”. His tactic of overwhelming Ukrainian positions with swarm infantry tactics relies on time. With the clock ticking down towards a second Trump presidency and potential peace negotiations, he may not have this luxury in the Kursk region.
Mr Zelensky’s second Kursk counter-offensive is a gamble, both strategically savvy and desperate.
Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
