Toy makers are banking on a slew of blockbuster movies in 2026 to spark fresh demand after President Trump’s tariffs last year left manufacturers reeling.
More than a dozen major kids movies are slated to hit theaters in the months ahead — among them “Toy Story 5,” “Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu” and a “Minions” sequel — raising hopes for big sales of action figures, games and plush toys.
“This year will easily be the biggest entertainment year since the 2019,” when about as many movies were released in a 12-month span, James Zahn, editor of The Toy Book told The Post. “There’s an onslaught of stuff coming out.”
Some of the productions — including the “Star Wars” and “Minions” flicks, along with He-Man-themed “Masters of the Universe” — were promoted during Sunday’s Super Bowl. The lineup looks comparable to 2019, when “Angry Birds 2,” “Frozen 2,” “Toy Story 4” and “Spider-Man: Far from Home” were released.
Most of the films in the pipeline are sequels or parts of big franchises — “comfort food rooted in good versus evil at a time when there is a lot of disarray,” Zahn said.
The $45 billion toy industry could use a boost after lackluster sales in 2024 and an uneven 2025, when Lego sets, trading cards and adult collectors accounted for more than 90% of last year’s growth in sales, according to new data from Circana.
Retail sales grew 6% in 2025 compared to a 0.3% decline the year before, with the number of sold toys rising 3% even as prices ticked up by 4%, the market research company found.
“If you strip out football cards, Lego and Pokémon, the industry would have been flat to down last year,” Seaport Capital analyst Gerrick Johnson told The Post.
This year could be “big if the movies hit right,” he said, cautioning that films are not as helpful to the toy industry as they used to be because “there is so much more content available to kids outside of theaters.”
“We used to have the home video bump after a movie died down,” Zahn added. “Now that bump doesn’t really exist anymore because digital comes out so quickly.”
Movie merch from at least five of the upcoming big movie releases will be on display at Toy Fair — the largest trade show of its kind in the US — from Feb. 14 to Feb. 17, when about 1,200 companies are coming to New York City to show off their latest products.
The show will feature licensed goods linked to the “Star Wars” and “Toy Story” movies, “Masters of the Universe,” “Matchbox: The Movie” and “PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie,” according to Zahn.
“KPop Demon Hunters” was released in June and a number of toy companies were able to produce merchandise quickly in response to its massive success. But most of the dolls and action figures — from Mattel — are coming out this summer, Zahn said.
“The buzz hasn’t stopped for KPop,” he added.
Big franchise movies coming out later this year include “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” starring Zendaya and Tom Holland, “Avengers: Doomsday,” with Robert Downey Jr., and “Supergirl,” starring Milly Alcock.
Adult appeal
Toy companies are set to promote plenty of products that appeal to adult collectors — who in 2024 became the largest consumers of toys, accounting for 28% of the market.
The trend has not slowed down. Toys in the $30-to-$70 range grew 18% in 2025, according to Circana. Lego saw record sales in the first half of last year, with adults snatching up colorful flower sets, in particular.
Last year’s top-selling toy brand was Pokémon. Its trading cards and digital content generated $2.5 billion in US sales — 87% more than in 2024, according to Circana.
“Pokémon has been growing rapidly and is critically important to our business,” said Jeremy Padawer, chief brand officer of Jazwares, which makes Pokémon actions figures and plush items.
Meanwhile, traditional products like dolls, stuffed animals and outdoor sports toys were duds, with sales in those categories declining the most last year, according to Circana.
Even sales of Barbie – the best selling doll in the world – dropped 17% in Mattel’s most recent quarter ended Sept. 30.
“You can assume sales are flat at best for the traditional toy business and down for companies like Basic Fun that had to eat most of the tariff costs, didn’t have big international businesses or super-hot items,” said Basic Fun chief Jay Foreman.
Last year, Basic Fun, which makes Tonka Trucks, Care Bears and Lincoln Logs, shelled out $7 million in tariffs for products it imported from China.
At the beginning of the year, the Boca Raton, Fla.-based company forecasted sales to be $230 million — but ended up doing $182 million in business. That’s down from the $206 million it made in 2024.
The shortfall was mostly due to lost weeks of shipping in 2025 when tariffs on Chinese goods soared to 145% and retailers pulled back on ordering more inventory, Foreman said. The levies were significantly cut in the fall.
“Sales may have grown at retail stores, but it was at the expense of the manufacturers’ margins,” said Alan Dorfman, CEO of Super Impulse, a Bristol, Pa.-based maker of miniature toys that mostly cost under $10.
“Tariffs hurt a lot of people.”
Super Impulse is raising prices 5% this year after its sales were flat in 2025, Dorfman added.
The overall sales slump hit companies hard. Toy businesses from mom-and-pops to giants like Mattel and Hasbro shed thousands of jobs last year, according Zahn.
“There were massive job losses that were very under-reported,” he said.
This year is shaping up to be more stable as companies bank on tariff rates remaining the same, industry experts said.
“This year could be a big year for innovation in the toy industry,” Johnson said. “I think companies held back, thinking why waste our ammunition in 2025.”
