New polling from CBS News and YouGov shows Donald Trump is on his way to picking up 11 electoral votes, with Arizona voters sour on the national direction and riddled with economic anxiety.
The survey of 1,439 registered voters shows the former president ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, 51% to 48%.
And no wonder: Just 5% of respondents believe things are going “very well” in America, with 25% saying “somewhat well” — translating to just three of 10 Grand Canyon State voters feeling the country is on the right track under the Harris-Biden administration.
Eight percent of Republicans and 29% of independents are at least somewhat satisfied with the state of the nation, as compared with 54% of Democrats.
Only 10% of respondents think the economy is very good, with 24% willing to say it’s fairly good. Republicans are most sour: 8% are happy with it to some degree, and only 29% of independents say the same.
With 82% of respondents (including 93% of Republicans and 79% of independents) telling pollsters the economy is a major factor in their votes and 73% making the same claim about inflation (including 90% of Republicans and 65% of indys), it’s clear Bidenomics is a bad beat for the Democratic ticket.
A full 69% of Arizonans say prices are increasing, and only three of 10 think Harris can stem the tide of currency devaluation; in contrast, 48% think Trump has a path to corral the increasingly high cost of living.
On the other big election issue, 57% of those polled worry about the US-Mexico border, and that also augurs ominously for Harris, especially since a staggering 46% believe she’d prioritize recent immigrants over citizens, with just 2% making the same assertion about Trump.
Two out of every three voters believe Trump would put Americans first, including 65% of independents and, crucially, 43% of Democrats, presenting one of the most striking contrasts in the data set.
Another is seen on the abortion issue, where Trump’s nuanced federalist position is paying off even as an abortion amendment (Proposition 139) would keep the procedure legal until “fetal viability” is on track to pass with 52% of the vote.
Even 39% of Republicans want abortion to be legal, suggesting social-conservative dogma isn’t the path to victory in the state.
Fifty-five percent of voters (including 56% of independents) believe the GOP nominee would keep his promise and let states decide on abortion, whereas a whopping 74% overall and 75% of indys assert Harris would press for national legalization, gutting states’ rights in service of her agenda.
Though the top of the ticket presents good news for Republicans, there’ll likely be no need for a victory party in the Senate race, given Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has opened a 54% to 45% lead over Kari Lake. He’s up 15 points with independents.
One big reason: 59% of voters perceive Lake as an extremist, while 60% see Gallego as reasonable. And 53% of Gallego voters are voting for him to oppose the GOP nominee.
