New polling data suggest that some voters who support President Trump are less likely to vote — and have voted in fewer elections — than voters who support President Biden. The trend highlights a warning that Congressman Lee Zeldin is trying to make sink in with the broader GOP apparatus.

A recent survey from the Nation Opinion Research Center and the University of Pennsylvania found that those voters who are most likely to support Mr. Trump don’t vote very often.

The survey measured support for Messrs. Biden and Trump and sorted respondents based on how many elections they had participated in between the 2018 midterms and the 2022 midterms.

The survey found a strong correlation between voting in fewer elections and supporting Mr. Trump. Among those who have not voted since 2016, 44 percent supported Mr. Trump while 26 percent supported Mr. Biden.

In contrast, among those who had voted in all three elections between 2018 and 2022, 50 percent supported Mr. Biden while 39 percent supported Mr. Trump.

Mr. Zeldin, whose unsuccessful gubernatorial run is often credited with helping down-ballot congressional candidates in New York in 2022, tells the Sun that getting out these infrequent voters will be necessary for the Trump campaign in 2024.

“We need to especially target lower-propensity voters who would vote for President Trump if they choose to cast a ballot,” Mr. Zeldin says. “Trump earned 11 million more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016, and he is building a historic coalition of Americans united in our mission to save this country.”

The difference was most pronounced among Black voters. Among Black voters who have not voted since 2018, 32 percent support Mr. Trump and 42 percent support Mr. Biden.

Among Black voters who have voted in every election since 2018, 86 percent support Mr. Biden and 5 percent support Mr. Trump.

Among white voters, Messrs. Biden and Trump were tied at 44 percent support each among voters who voted in three elections since 2018. Among those who voted in zero elections in the same time frame, Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden 51 percent to 19 percent.

Mr. Trump’s support was least flexible among Hispanic voters. Among Hispanic voters who voted three times, Mr. Biden led 54 percent to 35 percent. Among Hispanic voters who voted zero times, Mr. Biden led 36 percent to 35 percent.

The trend helps explain Democrats’ midterm gains in 2018 as well as the GOP’s soggy performance in the 2022 midterms. It also highlights the importance of get-out-the-vote efforts for the GOP this year. 

“To take back the White House in November, Republicans must lean into early voting, bolster election integrity nationwide, and beat Democrats at their own game in states where universal mail-in balloting and ballot harvesting are legal,” Mr. Zeldin says.

While get-out-the-vote, vote by mail, and ballot-harvesting efforts come into focus as a key tactic in the 2024 presidential election, Republicans around the country are taking action in state legislatures and in the courts to enhance election integrity.

In Mississippi, the national and state GOP is suing to narrow the window in which the state accepts absentee ballots. In Pennsylvania, Republicans are litigating a case in the hopes of disqualifying ballots with inaccurate or missing dates.

In other states, like Ohio, Georgia, and Florida, Republican-aligned groups are defending restrictions on ballot drop boxes put into place by state legislators.

A Pew Research Survey from February found that 28 percent of Republicans support allowing voting by mail, compared to 84 percent of Democrats. Mr. Trump has vocally denounced mail-in voting, much to the frustration of some of his advisers.

Regardless of whether Mr. Trump — who just last month said that “any time the mail is involved, you’re going to have cheating” — eventually pivots to try to get his supporters to vote early and by mail, it’s clear that advocates for doing so will have an uphill battle ahead of November.

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