The 2024 presidential election is less than nine months away, and voters could be faced with a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, which saw Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump to become the 46th president of the United States.
National polls of registered voters show a close race between the two contenders, yet in recent weeks, one of the candidates has consistently maintained a lead.
What Happened: For many months, Biden and Trump have been the front-runners for their respective parties ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump won the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada in the race to secure the GOP nomination. After rival candidates Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race, Trump faces only Nikki Haley as his competition to secure the GOP nomination for the 2024 presidential election.
The most recent Morning Consult poll of Republican voters showed Trump with a 62-point lead over Haley, down slightly from a record 63-point lead. The poll also indicated that Trump’s support among Republicans has slightly decreased to 80%, down from a peak of 81% recorded two weeks earlier.
Trump has had a lead of 50 points or more over his Republican opposition for several consecutive weeks. In hypothetical matchups with Biden in the national election, the two candidates have remained close until last week.
The weekly Morning Consult poll asked registered voters who they would select between the two candidates.
In this week’s poll, Trump received 45% of the vote, while Biden received 40%. Meanwhile, 10 percent selected “Someone Else” and 5% selected “Don’t Know.”
This marked a gain of one percentage point for Trump and a loss of two percentage points for Biden. The three-point swing in Trump’s favor comes after Biden had a three-point swing in the prior week.
Independent voters, who could decide the election, selected their 2024 picks as the following, with last week’s results in parentheses:
- Joe Biden: 32% (30%)
- Donald Trump: 38% (42%)
- Someone Else: 18% (17%)
- Don’t Know: 12% (11%)
The poll found that 89% of Republican voters selected Trump when presented with the above options, which was up one percentage point from last week’s results. It also found that 83% of Democratic voters selected Biden, which is down one percentage point from last week’s poll.
Related Link: EXCLUSIVE: Voters Want A Biden-Haley Ticket Vs. Biden-Harris: 1 Presidential Pair Is Likely To Win 2024 Election
Why It’s Important: Following a brief improvement last week, Biden has returned to a five-point shortfall against Trump in the hypothetical poll. This five-point advantage matches the largest lead Trump has held over Biden in direct comparison polls dating back to 2017, according to Morning Consult.
Over the past 19 weeks, Biden tied with Trump five times, was ahead of the former president four times and ranked behind the former president 10 times.
The positive for Biden was a gain among Independent voters, as Trump lost four percentage points among the same voters. More Independent voters selected “Someone Else” or “Don’t Know” in the latest poll, which could suggest more indecision heading into the 2024 election.
The poll also found that Trump had a nine-point net favorability lead against Biden, which is a record high since tracking began from Morning Consult.
Economic issues and immigration remain the foremost concerns for voters in the 2024 election. A separate Morning Consult poll targeting voters in swing states revealed a broader trust in Trump regarding both matters. The former president leads in all seven swing states surveyed, with a higher level of trust attributed to him for each issue in every state as well.
Critics have blamed Biden for not doing enough to help consumers who are struggling with higher prices and living expenses.
A major question for voters might revolve around the influence of the stock market on the candidates and the overall performance of the economy.
During Trump’s four years as president, the S&P 500 had average annual gains of 14.5%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, which tracks the S&P 500 Index, was up a total of around 67% during the four years under Trump, making it one of the best four-year returns for the S&P 500 in recent history.
Biden has been highlighting the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs. Last week, the index passed the 5,000 level for the first time in history.
The S&P 500 gained 37.4% during Biden’s first year in office, which was the best one-year market return under a president since Harry Truman in 1945. In 2022, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of over 19%, representing the largest annual drop since 2008.
As the 2024 presidential election draws near, the economy and stock market performance are expected to be central themes. While the economy’s significance to voters in the 2024 election could influence their decisions, it remains to be seen whether past outcomes will definitively sway the balance towards Trump.
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Image created using artificial intelligence with MidJourney.