A new 2024 election poll may be an outlier in the head-to-head matchup between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris with Trump leading 10 weeks before the 2024 presidential election.
What Happened: Since Harris became the Democratic Party candidate, which was officially confirmed with her nomination at the DNC, she has led many polls.
But one poll that differs is from conservative-leaning firm Rasmussen. The newest Rasmussen poll shows Trump with a lead. Here’s the latest, with the previous poll results in parentheses.
Donald Trump: 49% (49%)
Kamala Harris: 46% (45%)
The poll shows 2% of voters undecided and 2% of voters saying they would vote for another candidate. With the poll expanded beyond the head-to-head options, the results were:
Donald Trump: 47%
Kamala Harris: 45%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 4%
The poll was conducted between Aug. 15 and Aug. 21 and came before the Democratic National Convention had been completed and before Kennedy suspended his campaign, two key political events for the week.
Did You Know?
Why It’s Important: The poll itself is an outlier, with Harris averaging a 2% lead in national head-to-head polls as reported by RealClearPolling.
Even the Rasmussen poll showing Trump with a three-point lead is a significant improvement for the Democratic Party from the 10-point lead Trump had over Joe Biden in June before Biden dropped out of the race.
While Kennedy endorsed Trump, not all his supporters will shift over to the Republican ticket.
Trump could pick up 2% to 3% based on Kennedy Jr.’s support, which could increase his lead in one of the few polls showing him leading over Harris.
The next few national polls from leading polling agencies post Kennedy dropping out could be important indicators ahead of a highly anticipated presidential debate on Sept. 10.
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